(News Bulletin 247) – This article, in free access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team of News Bulletin 247. To not miss any opportunity, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
The Parisian market will not take a break for the National Day, and will open this Friday, July 14 under normal and usual conditions of timetables and quotation. However, we should naturally expect a modest level of activity due to the absence of a large fringe of operators.
Yesterday the tricolor index managed to reap additional gains within a figure identified, in diamond, in the wake of a confirmation, by producer prices this time, of a slowdown in inflation in addition to Atlantic. Slowdown, which if it should somewhat rebalance the debates at the next FOMC at the end of the month, will not influence the almost accepted scenario of a 25 basis point increase in the remuneration of the Fed Funds.
As a reminder, June US CPIs showed this week, much to traders’ relief, a moderate but noticeable cooling in price dynamics, which they can cross-reference with the findings of the latest jobs report, also showing a drop, albeit slow, in temperature. In detail, prices, food and energy included, rose in June at an annualized rate of 3.0%, whereas the consensus, already optimistic, foreshadowed an increase of 3.1%. Excluding food and energy, elements considered volatile, the monthly rise in prices is 0.2%, also below the consensus.
François Rimeu, Senior Strategist, La Française AM, prefers to take a step back, noting “too tight labor markets and too high wage inflation, and therefore ultimately for central bankers a risk of seeing core inflation remain high for some time yet. [M Rimeau] born [voit] no warning signs of an imminent reversal.” This question of the pivot will be central at the turn of the summer.
On the stock side, Valeo ended up 3.2% benefiting from an increase in Stifel’s recommendation to buy. Find the details here.
Carrefour ends stable at 17.28 euros and Carmila, a property company that operates the walls of the retail group’s shopping centers, jumped 7.4%. Carrefour has announced the acquisition from the Belgian Louis Delhaize of 60 hypermarkets and 115 Match and Cora supermarkets, which will strengthen its position in terms of market share against Leclerc. Carmila, for its part, will take over 52 shopping malls adjacent to Cora stores, which were 93% owned by the Louis Delhaize group. Find the details here.
Casino lost 2.5% after issuing a profit warning as the company undergoes financial restructuring. More information on this warning here.
On the other side of the Atlantic, unsurprisingly, it is above all on the tech side that the bullish reaction is the strongest, the Nasdaq Composite soaring by 1.58% while the Dow Jones, rich in banking and reacting quite differently to the bond and monetary question, gained only 0.14%. Balanced, the S&P500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.85% to 4,510 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1120. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $77.00.
On the agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the trade balance in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m., and the consumer confidence index (U-Mich) in preliminary data at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
We are at the heart – that is to say in its broadest phase – of a diamond figure. As a reminder, this is a figure close to a rhombus. Graphically, the diamond looks like a more or less flattened diamond: at the start of the pattern’s formation, prices move inside a widening wedge, then, halfway through, they oscillate at inside a tapering triangle.
The intense volatility on Thursday 06/07 accredits this thesis, as does the rebound over the whole week, at this stage. We are approaching a level close to the upper part of this diamond, with the formation of a significant upper wick on Thursday’s candle 07/13. More than ever, a contrarian attitude to any work on the index is key.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7410.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}
window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];
window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);
Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});
});
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
