(News Bulletin 247) – Wall Street is lining up a 7th consecutive rising session: the Dow Jones climbs by +1.05%, the S&P500 by +0.7% and the Nasdaq, which fell by -0.6%, ends at +0.75%.
The US indices did not finish at the day’s high, within 0.2%, which is a sign of optimism.
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ star economist, says he has lowered the estimated probability of a recession in the United States over the next 12 months from 25% to 20%… with the rapid decline in inflation, a true ‘Goldilocks’ scenario is taking place.
But it was less the ‘fundamentals’ than the values that wrote the bullish scenario of the day: the star of the session was Microsoft with a gain of +4% which added $120 billion to its capitalization ($2.675 billion, a new record for this title)… and nearly catches up with Apple (unchanged); Netflix also jumped by +5.5%, Nvidia broke a new all-time closing record with +2.2% (i.e. $1.145 billion in ‘capi’).
Financials posted the best sector gain with Morgan Stanley which ended in a cannonball with +6.5%, despite a decline in net profit (-14%). But turnover increased by 2% over one year to $13.46 billion and the wealth management branch collected $90 billion thanks to transfers from regional banks in difficulty.
Bank of America (+4.4%) recorded a jump of +19% in its profit (to $7.4 billion) and an increase of 11% in its turnover to $25.2 billion.
Bank NY Mellon is 3rd on the podium with +4.1%, ahead of Citizens Financial with +3.7%, Goldman Sachs +3.1%… but it’s the broker Charles Schwab who rocks everything, by far with +12.6%.
Oil companies also stood out with gains of +3.5% on EOG, Marathon Petroleum, Range Resource, +3.2% on Devon, +2.5% on Diamondback, EOG or Hess.
Banking stocks are clearly making the difference on the upside, much more than retail sales in the United States in June, which seem to be fueling hopes that the FED will put an end to its cycle of rate hikes as of July 26.
Retail sales rose just 0.2% sequentially in June, after rising 0.5% the previous month (revised from an initial estimate of 0.3%), according to the Commerce Department.
Excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), US retail sales also increased by 0.2% last month compared to May, where the market consensus was expecting an increase of +0.5%.
Industrial production in the United States fell 0.5% in June for the second consecutive month, including a contraction of 0.3% for manufacturing production itself and a fall of 2.6% for that of utilities. ‘, according to the Federal Reserve.
Total industrial production over 12 months fell by -0.4%. The capacity utilization rate fell by -0.55%, from 79.4% in May to 78.9% in June, 0.8 percentage points below its long-term average (1972-2022). ).
The Commerce Department said Tuesday that business inventories rose 0.2% after an already modest 0.1% rise (revised from +0.2% in the first reading) the previous month, in line with economists’ estimates. .
Business sales also rose 0.2% in May, meaning that at the current rate it takes businesses 1.40 months to clear inventory, compared with 1.33 months in May 2022.
The Dollar recovers this evening a few fractions against the Euro towards 1.12340 and the Dollar Index (+0.1%) returns to the threshold of ‘100’.
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