“Do not focus so much on Ukraine that you are indifferent to the serious threats of European security in Libya.” This is the message that Italy and Greece are trying to convey to their allies in the EU and NATO, but without much success, Politico points out in its analysis.

Libya migratory flows are growing again, at a time when Rome is increasingly concerned about Russia’s growing influence on the unstable North African nation, which is practiced through weapons supplies and a possible new naval base in the northeast port.

Athens has also sent two warships to patrol Libya, in response to the wave of migratory flows and its strategic concerns that its opponent, Turkey, is working with the Libyans to divide the Mediterranean into sea zones. The zones are claiming water just south of the island of Crete, while Athens considers them illegal under international maritime law.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tayyani described Libya as “a state of emergency that Europe has to face jointly”, but a European attempt to make some diplomatic progress last week ended in a fiasco.

EU immigration commissioner Magnus Brunner, accompanied by ministers from Italy, Greece and Malta, was declared a “unwanted person” in Benghazi, the power area of the powerful man of East Libya Halifar Haftar. Accused of unspecified “law violations”, the delegation was ordered to leave.

“The Russian role in Libya continues to be reinforced, using it as a central hub in its African strategy,” He warned an EU diplomat who is closely monitoring the case. The diplomat added that a politically linked smuggling network in Libya supports Russia’s strategic efforts, helping Moscow to bypass sanctions and arm migration.

Italy and Greece, however, know that tackling a problem as complex as Libya – a three -fold country in Spain – will require support from major allies such as the US and France.

So far, however, the reaction of these allies was frustrating.

Migration is again on top of the agenda

The Greek government has announced strict new rules for migration on Wednesday as it is struggling to face the increase in arrivals from Libya to Crete at the height of the tourist season.

“A state of emergency requires extraordinary measures and therefore the Greek government has made the decision to inform the European Commission that … it is suspending the processing of asylum applications, initially for three months, for those arriving in Greece from North Africa by sea,” the Greek Prime Minister said.

About 9,000 people have arrived in Crete from Libya since the beginning of the year, most of them in recent weeks, already almost twice as high as the number for the entire 2024.

At the end of June, Greece developed two warships in an effort to limit the recent increase in immigrant arrivals. Senior government officials, however, doubted their effectiveness, warning that naval patrols can encourage immigrants to fall into the sea to seek rescue. As expected, only in the last week more than 2,000 immigrants arrived in Crete.

The Greek government is also criticizing both the opposition and its own officials for abandoning the Libyan issue in recent years.

Overall, there was a 7% increase in irregular crossings in the central Mediterranean in the first part of the year, almost entirely from Libya, compared to a total reduction of 20% on all other main routes.

Repression in Greece has also caused fears in Italy that more immigrants will be pushed into Italian waters.

“We are worried about the situation in Libya and the recent increase in irregular departures,” a European Commission spokesman said before the EU visit to the country last week.

Worrying is one thing. Finding a solution is something completely different.

Diplomats described last week’s diplomatic mission as an attempt to determine which solutions could be feasible. EU money, after all, would probably play a role. The EU concluded an extremely controversial agreement with Tunisia in 2023, in which it paid the authorities to stop immigration, but diplomats doubt that such a model could find a new application in a country so destabilized by rival militias such as Libya.

Russians before the gates

A recent demonstration of Russian weapons in Benghazi during a military parade showed the Kremlin’s growing proximity to Haftar.

Russia wants a fort in the Mediterranean, especially after the loss of Tartu by the new authorities in Syria after the fall of Bashar al -Assad. The Italian Tayyani warns that Libya is the most likely destination for a new naval base.

According to a report by Agenzia Nova news agency, Moscow also wants to install missile systems on a military base in Seba, South Libya, which is controlled by Haftar, and turn the missiles to Europe.

Many analysts and diplomats are cautious about whether Moscow is already in the process of “marking” Europe from Libya. But even without the rockets, Russia can already use military bases in Libya for logistical support, “which could theoretically hurt Europe,” said Arturo Varvelli, a senior political associate of the European Foreign Relations Council.

So far, Russia has mainly used Libyan bases to conduct its operations in the rest of Africa, operating mainly through the African Army Corps, with the support of the Russian Defense Ministry.

There are also increasing fears between southern Europe officials that Russia could soon be able to use Libya immigration in a repetition of the hybrid war that began on the EU Eastern Front, when it forced refugees to the Middle East.

However, not everything goes as Moscow wants. One of the diplomats said that the cost of the war in Ukraine was deprived of the African Corps the funding it needed to pay the Libyan militias, creating tensions with its proxies and Haftar.

“I don’t see the Russians take over” immigrant trafficking operation, said Karim Mezran, a senior associate at the Atlantic Council, but “I see the Russians say to the people: Now I am the new ruler and you are just following my commands.”

Looking for allies

Despite the seriousness of these threats from Libya, Italy and Greece are struggling to persuade their allies to take action.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni discussed Libya with French President Emmanuel Macron at a three -hour meeting in Rome on June 4.

Libya “is of course a matter of essential importance for both Italy and France,” said an Italian official with immediate knowledge of the talks between Paris and Rome, stressing “common concerns, especially for security – in terms of Russia’s growing presence there.”

The Italian official, however, acknowledged that there were “shades” between the two countries “on possible political solutions”.

Libya is increasingly added to the agenda of more diplomatic discussions, but in practice a few happens. While Italy desperately wishes to support militarily strong France, the issue is simply not so vital to Paris as for Rome, and even exposes France’s recent failures to Mali and Niger.

“For Italy, the issue of Libya is more important in the short term than for France,” said Virgini Colobie, a professor at Louis University in Rome and a Libyan expert.

“Politically, the French government is not particularly interested in criticizing Russia because it underlines the failures of the French government,” he said, noting that France has gradually retired from African countries in the Sahel, while Russia has intensified its presence.

And with the US increasingly turning to the Pacific, there is little hopes that Washington will invest large political capital in stabilizing the country.

The most notable is that in the most recent NATO Declaration, signed on June 25 in The Hague, Africa is not even mentioned.

“No one wanted to include divisive issues, as NATO now has a very minimalist agenda,” Alessandro Maron, head of the Defense, Security and Space Program in the Istituto Affari Internazionali -based thinking tank, commented on Rome.

This is a bitter pill for the Italians.

Rome must “now face this reality,” Marone added.