(News Bulletin 247) – With the end of the first half results, News Bulletin 247 takes stock. We have chosen as a barometer the reaction of the stock market during the session following the announcement of these results.

The half-year results season was intense. All the residents of the CAC 40 publishing accounts based on the calendar year have all returned their copy, with, for several of them, records in terms of profits and/or profitability.

Which of these groups did the best in this test? In an attempt to provide some answer, we have selected the stock market reaction of their securities on the day of the publication of their results (see infographics below), or the following day for companies which communicated their performance after the close of the market, such as LVMH or Michelin.

The impact of market conditions

On this basis, the strongest progress is signed by STMicroelectronics, which recorded a jump of almost 9%, after delivering second quarter growth slightly above expectations, and giving gross margin and revenue forecasts above expectations. above the consensus.

While Saint-Gobain was comfortably in second place until the session on Thursday August 3, it was finally Crédit Agricole that ousted the oldest listed company on the CAC 40, with a rise of 6.14% at the close. of the session on Friday 4 August. The last company in the Parisian index to report, the green bank made a very good impression after publishing better-than-expected quarterly profits.

Third in this ranking, Saint-Gobain has not been unworthy. The group, which achieved record profitability in the first half and continues to publish, season after season, results appreciated by investors, finally finished third in this ranking. Bouygues is finally relegated to the foot of the podium, with accounts amplified by the integration of Equans, ahead of Hermès, great satisfaction from the luxury sector, with growth which accelerated further in the second quarter.

On the side of the biggest declines, Capgemini (-7%) on the contrary scalded investors with a disappointing increase in its income in the second quarter. Same observation for Teleperformance (-16.9%), which also lowered its annual growth forecast.

Obviously, this approach has its limits, like any indicator. The price action of the company may very well be affected by the market conditions and mood on the day. For example, Stellantis delivered an excellent copy, with an impressive current operating margin. But its 2.7% rise could have been higher, in a bull market. However, the day of the publication of its half-year results, the CAC 40 had lost 1.35%.

It is to correct for this effect linked to market conditions that we have published both an infographic with the stock’s raw reaction and a second one (below) in which we have calculated the outperformance or underperformance of the stock by compared to the evolution of the CAC 40 on the same day (in other words, if a share gained 4% over a session and the CAC 40 gained 1%, its outperformance is 3%).

Taking into account the stock market weather upsets this ranking. STMicroelectronics remains first while Crédit Agricole confirms its second place. The title of the banking establishment is followed by Societe Generale, which rose from fifth to third place, taking into account the stock market environment on the day of its publication.

The red and black bank therefore relegates Stellantis to fourth place. Bouygues moves up to fourth to fifth place and Hermès finds itself in sixth place. Saint-Gobain, third in the previous ranking, fell to seventh place.

Even taking this performance differential into account, the measurement remains imperfect. First of all because an index is by definition diversified and its variations are therefore often less volatile over a day than a given share. Then, because it can happen that investors anticipate good results in advance.

Carrefour had seen its action increase by 2.9% during the session preceding the communication of its results (published after the market closed), then gained another 3.1% during the session following the publication of its accounts. Conversely, STMicroelectronics, after gaining almost 9% on the day of its results, suffered profit taking the next day (-4.09%). Another example: Worldline saw its publication being appreciated by analysts, thanks to a reassuring growth in its merchant services activity. But the payments group only gained 0.32% in the session on the heels of its release. But the catch-up of these good results was done the next day (+4.9%).

Note: we have excluded from our infographics, Alstom and Pernod Ricard, whose fiscal years straddle two calendar years, ending respectively at the end of March and the end of June.