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No respite for the Parisian market for August 15 (Assumption, public holiday), which will open this Tuesday under the usual conditions of timetables and quotation. In low volumes, the CAC 40 index yoyoed on Monday, managing in extremis to close symbolically in the green (+0.12% to 7,348 points).
The feverish market is suffering from growing concerns about the Chinese economy. “In China, many statistics are expected this week, but investors will be most attentive to the property development sector, with another fall of more than 15% this morning from Country Garden. Industrial production, retail sales and the unemployment rates, published overnight, all missed expectations significantly.
Markets are also facing a resurgence of geopolitical risk linked to the Ukrainian conflict. “Markets will be watching the situation in the Black Sea, after the control of a Ukrainian cargo ship by Russia on Sunday, which led to the latter firing, in order to force the ship to stop and put a little more pressure on this essential route for the transport of raw materials in the region”, commented M Boy.
No significant statistical figure punctuated the session on Monday. The agenda is clearly denser from this Tuesday with across the Atlantic, retail sales and the manufacturing index Empire State.
If the majority of the CAC 40 titles evolved in the green, Thales gave up 1.7%, penalized by the loss of a huge contract for its subsidiary Thales Alenia Space with the satellite operator Telesat. Valneva, for its part, lost 8.4%, undermined by the postponement of the target date for the end of the examination of its chikungunya vaccine candidate by the American health authority.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices illustrated the contained rise in Treasuries 10 years, the Dow Jones being content with a symbolic closing in the green (+0.07% to 35,307 points) and the Nasdaq Composite managing to gain 1.05% to 13,788 points. The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.58% to 4,489 points.
Please note that Milan will be closed due to a public holiday.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The exit from the congestion figure on Friday July 21 was thwarted twice, on July 26, on a wide gap, and over the whole of the past week, on a break in the short moving average. The bullish message has momentarily lost its meaning.
We will monitor any formation (and confirmation at the end of the session) of a bearish gap. We witnessed the perfect repeat of the August 02 candle on Tuesday, ie a school doji with elongated shadows, a marker of nervous indecision at the heart of an enlarged pattern of consolidation.
On Thursday August 10, the tricolor index came up against the upper limit of a larger diamond, the validity of which was effectively tested on Friday. High volatility is expected until the end of the month.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7500.00 points.
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