(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
With the support of encouraging statistics in China, suggesting that the recovery measures taken very recently by Beijing are already bearing fruit, the market regained some momentum, the CAC 40 regaining 0.52% to 7,278 points, in the terminal part of a vast diamond-shaped energy accumulation structure.
The European Central Bank will hold its monetary policy meeting this week, on September 14. According to a Reuters survey, a majority of economists expect a status quo on rates. The US Federal Reserve will deliver its verdict on its key rates a week later.
“Whatever the September decision, we expect economic projections to be revised downwards,” anticipates Frederik Ducrozet, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Pictet Wealth Management. Importantly, inflation is expected to remain slightly above target throughout the forecast horizon, justifying a hawkish bias. Recent weakness in leading indicators such as PMIs may not be fully accounted for, if only for technical reasons, although chief economist Philip Lane suggested staff could adjust their projections accordingly . Regardless, a weaker growth profile would imply a wider output gap amid growing concerns over weaker supply.”
The challenge now is to assess to what extent the Fed and the ECB will maintain high rates for a long time. And to analyze the (de)synchronization of their respective cycles, with regard to the capacity of economies to land softly or less gently after months of restrictive monetary policy.
“For a long time this year, investors assumed that the lead that the Fed had in its monetary tightening cycle compared to the ECB would make it possible to bend the American economy before that of the old continent. If the two zones are undoubtedly in slowdown, the signals of resilience are more present across the Atlantic. So much so that the Fed and ECB could finally end their phase of raising key rates at approximately the same time”, deciphers Thomas Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Management.
The Fed will follow in the footsteps of the ECB next week.
On the values side, JCDecaux (+5.8%) was boosted by an increase in recommendation to “outperform” by Oddo BHF. Bic (+3.2%), for its part, achieved an encouraging progress update on its Horizon strategic plan, which sets objectives for 2025.
To follow the listed values of the Casino universe (Rallye, Casino Guichard, CNova), after the announcement of a heavy fine, imposed by the AMF, on the parent company of the mass distribution group.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Monday’s session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.25% to 34,663 points) but especially the Nasdaq Composite (+ 1.14% to 13,917 points), riding on a Tesla effect. The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, appreciated by 0.67% to 4,487 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0720. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $86.60.
On the agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority the ZEW index of German economic sentiment, expected to fall to -15.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
From August 10 to 18, in one go, the tricolor flagship index melted from one terminal to the other of the vast flattened diamond (diamond) which has concentrated its nervous oscillations since May 24, breaking in the process the line d neckline of a bearish chartist pattern at 7,250 points.
A continuation of the oscillations within the diamond is envisaged. Any release from the latter will give direction provided that the volumes, and a sectoral federation, are there…
Signs of fatigue within this diamond itself are already perceptible. The bearish all-encompassing of August 24, with a response on September 4, at the level of the median line of the diamond, constitute one. Another is the weekly candle structure for the week ended September 1st. The failure against the upper limit of the large diamond is validated.
To summarize, it is the direction of exit from this figure of congestion which will be fundamental, and will ultimately provide a lasting direction.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 7398.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7084.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
News Bulletin 247 advice
Hourly graph
Daily Data Chart
function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}
window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];
window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);
Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});
});
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
