(News Bulletin 247) – The stock of the industrial gas specialist fell significantly on the Paris Stock Exchange this Wednesday. Following a conference with management, Stifel notes that the second half promises to be more complicated than the first, but remains positive on long-term action.

This is one of the star stocks among individuals: Air Liquide. The industrial gas specialist represents the core value of the portfolio par excellence, and at the end of December 2022, 35% of its capital was held by individual shareholders.

If Air Liquide is experiencing a stock market performance that matches its reputation (increase of 22% since January 1, 36% over one year and 80% over five years), the stock nevertheless fell quite significantly this Wednesday, losing 2. 1% around 2:15 p.m., the biggest drop in the CAC 40, the decline having even reached 3.3% in the morning.

In a note published this Wednesday, Stifel points to short-term “challenges” for the action. The research office explains that the group’s management held a meeting in London with sell-side analysts.

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A consensus now demanding

At the conclusion of this meeting, the bank notes that the activity (“trading”) could be more difficult in the second half of the year than in the first for the CAC 40 resident. It considers that the consensus of analysts on the evolution of sales for the third quarter, namely an increase of 4% year-on-year on a comparable basis, now appears “demanding”.

Two segments are particularly affected by a potential slowdown. Firstly, electronics (which concerns the semiconductor industry, flat screens or photovoltaic panels) which represented around 9% of the company’s turnover last year. Growth in this segment had already slowed down in the second quarter due to a demanding comparison base and “lower demand from memory manufacturers (electronic components, editor’s note)”, explained the company.

“With higher comparables in the second half, growth will be even lower, but should remain positive, according to the CEO (François Jackow, Editor’s note). The bottom of the wave should be reached either in the third quarter or in the fourth quarter “, explains Stifel.

Another segment concerned, “industrial merchants”, an activity which accounted for 38% of 2022 turnover. This segment brings together smaller industrial clients (such as food and pharmaceuticals for example) than large accounts, housed , them, in the “large industry” segment.

Great long-term benefits

In this segment, “bulk” volumes, i.e. gas supplies to customers via local gas tanks and tanks, are down 5-6% and are facing strong winds. unfavorable, notes Stifel, while those of “packaged gas”, that is to say gases delivered in bottles or in frames, are stable or even slightly increasing, continues the bank. These delivery solutions are chosen by smaller customers with lower volume needs. These small companies received public aid. “However, going forward, these businesses need to return to growth to have a solid outlook. According to the CFO, the financial health of small businesses is not a cause for concern at the moment, but the situation needs to be closely monitored. close,” says Stifel.

If turbulence cannot be ruled out in the short term for Air Liquide, the research office reiterated its confidence in the value with a purchase advice, because the group has never had so many opportunities in the long term. term, he believes. Stifel talks about its project wins in electronics, which represent a total of more than 1 billion euros over the last 18 months, with a pipeline (of potential calls for tender) which promises to be rich in the United States or in Europe.

Another long-term catalyst: the production of low-carbon hydrogen in which Air Liquide has great ambitions, targeting 3 gigawatts of electrolysis capacity installed in 2030. Stifel notes that growth in this activity “is becoming more visible”. And note the European Union has become aware of the need to support investments in low-carbon hydrogen infrastructure with possible announcements in November.