PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to be mixed at the opening on Friday, in a context of wait-and-see before the publication of crucial indicators on inflation in the euro zone and the United States, while comments and Encouraging data supported American sovereigns.
The first available indications indicate that the Parisian CAC 40 would be stable at the opening. Futures contracts on the FTSE in London suggest an opening increase of 0.10%, compared to 0.23% for the Dax in Frankfurt, and 0.12% for the EuroStoxx 50.
Inflation in the euro zone is expected at 09:00 GMT, and should decline compared to the previous month: the consensus expects a decline to 4.5% in September, compared to 5.2% in August, expectations reinforced Thursday by the publication inflation in Germany, which slowed faster than expected.
Across the Atlantic, PCE inflation, the indicator on which the Federal Reserve relies to monitor price dynamics, is expected to increase slightly, to 3.5% in September year-on-year compared to 3.2% in August. .
However, encouraging comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who explained Thursday that the American central bank could perhaps bring inflation back to its target without too significant an increase in unemployment, encouraged the markets.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, who spoke after the markets closed on Thursday, did not mention American monetary policy.
Finally, the macroeconomic indicators published Thursday relieved observers about the slowdown in the American economy: jobless claims increased last week, while growth since 2020 has been less vigorous than indicated in the first estimates, according to the revised GDP data.
The yield on the 10-year security thus stabilized around 4.6%, after soaring by 37 basis points (bp) in the wake of the Fed’s decision on September 20, bringing respite to risky assets.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Thursday as investors weighed the latest economic data as rising Treasury yields paused before the release of US inflation figures on Friday.
The Dow Jones index gained 0.35%, or 116.07 points, to 33,666.34 points. The broader S&P-500 gained 25.19 points, or 0.59%, to 4,299.70 points. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 108.43 points (0.83%) to 13,201.28 points.
Japanese markets are falling under pressure from the transport and energy sectors. The Nikkei lost 0.11% to 31,836.24 points and is heading towards its worst quarterly performance since mid-2022, with the Topix falling 1.16% to 2,318.22 points.
The shipping sector is the bottom of the 33 Nikkei sectors, down 4.41%, followed by the oil and coal sector, down 3.08%.
Chinese markets are closed for a week, with the exception of Hong Kong indices, which are progressing with the easing of American yields. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index gained 2.71%.
The dollar is falling from its highest level in 11 months but is heading for its 11th consecutive week of gains as investors bet that the US economy will prove resilient to Fed rate hikes.
The dollar erodes by 0.19% against a basket of reference currencies, while the euro takes 0.21% to 1.0581 dollars, and the pound sterling 0.2% to 1.2221 dollars.
In Asia, the yen is stable at 149.35 yen per dollar, while the Australian dollar rises 0.54% to 0.6458 dollars.
US yields halt their advance and decline moderately thanks to technical factors, but selling pressure remains as investors seek to price in the higher rate scenario for longer.
The ten-year Treasury yield fell 1.6 bps to 4.5814%, while the two-year rate remained flat at 5.0686%.
Oil is hesitating, despite greater than expected transport demand in China, during a public holiday week, and a resilient American economy.
Brent fell 0.35% to $95.05 per barrel, with light American crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) remaining at $91.75.
(edited by Jean-Stéphane Brosse)
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