(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 reached the end of a session that was once again volatile and long uncertain as to its outcome, to close in the green (+0.48% a hair from 7,000 points). The start of this session should be favorable, in the wake in particular of the sharply higher closing of the Nasdaq Composite (+3.41%), a flagship index of American growth stocks, which is benefiting from legitimate buying temptations at a good price. account.
In terms of statistics, investors were able to take note on Monday of the preliminary data for the Euro Zone GDP, for the fourth quarter as a first estimate, at +0.3%, slightly below expectations on a quarterly basis. The week, copious in this regard, will be marked by a battery of PMI activity indicators in the Euro Zone tomorrow in final data for January, inflation figures in the Euro Zone on Wednesday and the ADP survey on American employment, the outcome of the Governing Council of the ECB on Thursday and the monthly federal employment report on Friday.
On the stock side, the continuation of the results season fed the news of companies in Paris with a very big disappointment on the part of Casino which lost 13.8%. The distributor has announced that it now expects a 1.7% drop in its Ebitda for its brands in France, when it was aiming for growth in it last November. As a consequence, Carrefour dropped 5.3%, while the funds approached by Auchan to help it finance a possible takeover bid (takeover bid) on its listed competitor would hardly be attracted by the project.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended in positive territory, although without factor federation. While the Dow Jones gained 1.17% to 35,131 points on Monday, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.41% to 14,239 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.89% to 4,515 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1240. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $88.30.
To follow on the agenda this Tuesday, in priority, the final data of the manufacturing PMI in the Euro Zone (IHS Markit) for January at 10:00 a.m., the unemployment rate in the Euro Zone at 10:00 a.m., the American ISM manufacturing PMI at 4:00 p.m., as well as new job offers (JOLTS), always across the Atlantic at the same time.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
An oblique line of support gave way on Monday under the sectorally federated assaults of the selling camp, in a very high level of participation. This release of selling energy at this stage, in a single session, constitutes a major technical fact which characterizes the hypersensitivity of a market which is increasingly and continuously questioning the levels of valuation of shares. Entry into bear market is not formally characterized, but the situation calls for the greatest vigilance under this oblique. She was reinstated at the very end of the week. We put her under close surveillance.
In the immediate future, plotting a wedge in hourly data is not very engaging.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7115.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a breakout of 6747.00 points would revive selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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Source: Tradingsat
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