CAC 40: LVMH in the spotlight

(News Bulletin 247) – Investors will closely watch the behavior of the luxury company LVMH at the opening. In fact, the group published its turnover yesterday evening after the close. Turnover stood at 19.96 billion euros for the quarter ended at the end of September, compared to 19.75 billion euros for the same period of 2022. Despite growing figures, analysts expected a better publication. If the sanctions are generally strong during the latest announcements which disappoint investors, as evidenced by Alstom and Euroapi recently, a sharp fall is not currently envisaged because operators have already anticipated this slowdown with a sharp drop in the price of the stock since the stock’s highs in recent weeks. On the other hand, we will monitor the entire discretionary consumption compartment, in particular Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau because the two stocks have been heavily sanctioned in recent weeks. The figures published by LVMH on this market segment, wines and spirits, could provide visibility to investors in the sector. On the political level, we expect in the coming hours the movement on the side of the House of Representatives which should proceed to the first vote to appoint its new “speaker” after the surprise ousting, last week, of Kevin McCarthy from this post, which he had only been in office since January. A crucial decision when Washington has only postponed the deadline for voting on the budget. Still in the United States, we are awaiting the publication of producer prices today before the opening of the American markets as well as the Fed’s minutes this evening at 8:00 p.m. Separately, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said the U.S. central bank does not need to raise interest rates further and that there is no recession ahead . In the raw materials compartment we will look closely at developments around the Finnish gas pipeline. Indeed, the Finnish government confirmed that the leak observed last weekend on the Balticconnector, a gas pipeline linking Finland, Estonia and the other Baltic countries, was “probably the result of external activity”. GTT should benefit from this news as the group has just announced a new order. Accor should be in demand with the launch of its share buyback program.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Technically the Parisian index is still in a negative dynamic as long as investors do not close the 7200 points. The rebound of the last hours should weaken as resistance approaches and cause reflux towards the gap yesterday morning which should initially play a support function. Its filling would indicate the start of a new bearish deterioration and a return below 7000 points.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7200.00 points.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart