by CORENTIN CHAPRON

PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to rise on Thursday while European stock markets advance at mid-session, relieved by the Federal Reserve’s circumspection but on the lookout for the publication of inflation data in the United States.

New York index futures suggest an opening of 0.36% for the Dow Jones, 0.39% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and 0.37% for the Nasdaq.

In Paris, the CAC 40 advanced 0.53% to 7,168.86 points around 10:15 GMT, compared to 0.79% for the FTSE in London and 0.7% for the Dax in Frankfurt.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose by 0.78%, compared to 0.73% for the EuroStoxx 50 and 0.81% for the Stoxx 600.

The Fed’s minutes published Wednesday showed that central bank officials were attentive to the risk of too much tightening of monetary conditions, supporting the scenario of an end to rate hikes to avoid too abrupt a stop in the activity.

The central bank thus appeared to be dependent on data, but also on market conditions: an increase in American yields can justify pausing rate increases, but they remain high, close to their highest level in 16 years .

However, investors remain wait-and-see before the publication of inflation data in the United States, the main indicator expected this week and which could in itself force the markets to reassess the trajectory of American rates.

In fact, if the consensus expects a deceleration to 3.6% in September after 3.7% in August, an upward surprise remains possible: the producer price statistics (PPI) published on Wednesday were clearly higher. above expectations in September (+0.5% over one month and +2.7% over one year).

“All eyes are on the US inflation data (Thursday) and how they support or not the recent change in tone from the Fed,” note ING strategists.

Furthermore, “geopolitical unease seems to persist even if the situation seems contained, which means that the short end of the curve could be more sensitive to stronger inflation data than expected.”

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE

Publicis raised its annual forecasts on Thursday after reporting organic growth in net income above expectations in the third quarter, and gained 4.85%, leading the Stoxx 600. The media sector posted the best performance of the Stoxx 600, up 1.87%.

Casino announced on Wednesday an extension of the membership period for the “lock-up” agreement relating to the financial restructuring of the group, and fell by 6.22%.

Orpea fell 8.83% after a downward adjustment to its annual profit.

Easyjet lost 5.01% after its results and forecasts. The air transport group also announced its intention to order 157 aircraft from Airbus (+0.81%) and an option on 100 other aircraft.

Barclays fell 2.88% on Thursday, after comments from the bank’s general manager on the outlook for profits in the banking sector, which he said were destined to deteriorate.

RATE

Long yields continue to erode, after the publication of the Fed minutes which give hope that the rate peak has already been reached, but the markets remain cautious before the publication of inflation data in the United States.

The yield on the ten-year Treasury fell 3.2 bp to 4.5646%, with the two-year falling 1.5 bp to 4.9905%.

The German ten-year yield is stable at 2.725%, that of the two-year rate is stagnating at 3.108%.

CHANGES

The dollar is giving up part of its gains, pushed down by a reassessment of the trajectory of the Fed’s monetary policy.

The dollar lost 0.10% against a basket of reference currencies, the euro was stable at $1.062 and the pound sterling lost 0.08% to $1.2301.

OIL

Crude is progressing in a context of reassessment of the rate trajectory in the United States, and after comments from the Saudi oil minister, who pleaded for a “proactive” approach to the oil market, in order to ensure its stability.

Brent rose 1.07% to $86.74 per barrel, with American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) nibbling 0.83% to $84.18.

(Written by Corentin Chappron, edited by Blandine Hénault)

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