by Claude Chendjou

PARIS – The main European stock markets are expected without much change on Wednesday for a session which should be calm again, on the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States where Wall Street will be closed on Thursday and the Friday session shortened.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should gain 0.13% at the opening, the Dax in Frankfurt 0.11% and the FTSE 100 in London 0.06%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.12%.

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting of October 31 and November 1, published Tuesday evening, showed that central bank officials agreed that they could take a cautious approach on interest rates, saying that further increases would be necessary only “if” data suggested insufficient progress against inflation.

These “minutes” were considered unsurprising and investors are still betting on a rate cut by the major central banks next year, with some traders starting to estimate that the first drop in the cost of credit in the United States could even occur as soon as month March 2024, according to the CME group’s Fedwatch barometer.

For today’s session, trading volumes are expected to be reduced, with many traders already on holiday as Wall Street will be closed on Thursday and Friday’s session shortened to 18:00 GMT. However, weekly unemployment claims are expected this Wednesday in the United States, which should confirm an ebbing of tensions on the job market and the Michigan confidence index for the month of November.

In Europe, the main indicator of the week is expected on Thursday with the publication of activity PMIs which will provide information on the evolution of the economic situation while a recession remains feared in the community bloc.

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in the red on Tuesday, the S&P-500 and the Nasdaq seeing an end to a series of five sessions in the green, while American distributors recorded a decline after disappointing forecasts and technology stocks fell back.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.18%, or 62.75 points, to 35,088.29 points.

The broader S&P-500 lost 9.19 points, or 0.20%, to 4,538.19 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 84.55 points (0.59%) to 14,199.98 points.

The main Wall Street indices remained in the red after the publication of the Fed’s “minutes”.

“With no catalysts to continue to carry the market higher today, there was some disappointment for stocks and some profit-taking,” said Michael James, managing director of Wedbush Securities.

On the value side, the distributor Kohl’s plunged 8.6% after quarterly sales below expectations, while Lowe’s fell 3.1% due to the drop in its annual profit forecast. Best Buy fell 0.7% following a gloomy forecast for its annual sales.

IN ASIA

At the close of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index advanced 0.29% to 33,451.83 points, while the broader Topix gained 0.44% to 2,378.19 points, thanks to a technical rebound, with Japanese markets closed on Thursday. The indices were also supported by Fast Retailing (+1.26%) Cyberagent (+4.95%).

The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) lost 0.54% on Wednesday after gaining more than 3% last week and hitting its highest level since September on Tuesday.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell 0.79% and the CSI 300 fell 1.02%.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

EXCHANGES/RATES

The dollar index, measuring the fluctuations of the greenback against a basket of international currencies, rebounded on Wednesday, by 0.20%, but remains near a two and a half month low. The dollar has depreciated since the start of the month by around 3% and is heading towards its biggest monthly decline in a year.

The euro fell 0.08% to $1.09 after hitting its highest since mid-August on Tuesday at 1.0966.

The pound sterling stands at 1.2515 dollars (-0.18%), returning from a two-month peak reached on Tuesday at 1.2554.

On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds is stable at 4.4178%, but it has fallen by around 50 basis points since the start of the month.

That of the German Bund of the same maturity appears at 2.586%, up by around three basis points, after a decline of around 2.5 points on Tuesday.

OIL

The oil market is practically stable before the publication of crude stock figures in the United States. They are expected to have increased last week by almost 9.1 million barrels, according to sources citing the American Petroleum Institute.

Brent fell by 0.27% to $82.23 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) by 0.24% to $77.58.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR NOVEMBER 22:

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

S

USA 1:30 p.m. Unemployment registrations week. at 13 226,000 231,000

november

USA 3:00 p.m. Michigan Confidence Index Nov. 60.6 60.4

(final)

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Tangi Salaün)

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