EUR/USD: Towards a little temperance

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The Euro Dollar continued to form a horizontal consolidation, at levels which had not been relevant since mid-August, with currency traders expressing their confidence in the scenario of the beginning of a monetary inflection, through loosening. gradually faucet from mid-2024.

“If the macroeconomic data currently supports this, it is nevertheless not certain that the direction of the markets, particularly rates, is not to the taste of central bankers,” tempers Thomas Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Gestion. Pay attention to posture hawkish [restrictive, belliciste, ndlr] during their last monetary policy meeting of the year, mid-December, where they could try to temper investors’ enthusiasm.

Forex traders will have to deal with a very busy macroeconomic program this week, not necessarily in quantity but in “quality”: the week’s agenda includes indicators with strong potential impact in the event of a deviation from the consensus. And it starts this Tuesday with, at 4:00 p.m. (Paris time), the consumer confidence index (Conference Board). An indicator with a strong impact, in an economy where traditionally, the creation of national wealth is very dependent on the quality of domestic consumption.

It will continue tomorrow with US GDP data, preliminary consumer price data in November in the Euro Zone on Thursday, as will PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred measure in its assessment of price dynamics. Enough to gauge even more precisely the credibility of a Goldilocks type scenario, an ideal scenario where measured and controlled inflation would coexist with weak but continuous growth.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0950 approximately.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

At this stage, an essential observation is necessary. Following the training of marubozu school Tuesday 14/11, the spot built an extremely short consolidation, pennant on the upper part of the candle mentioned, before rising early, proof of the bubbling impatience of the buying camp.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as Euro Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between support at 1.0822 USD and resistance at 1.1069 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART