(News Bulletin 247) – Indecision, nervousness, intense questioning… So much for schematizing the market matrix in Paris since the beginning of the week, marked by a lack of federation, both factorial and sectoral. In the absence of sharp statistical benchmarks since the NFP (US federal jobs report on Friday), operators are awaiting the publication of the new consumer price indices across the Atlantic (tomorrow, 2:30 p.m.), in order to be able to try to further refine the timetable for raising federal rates.
“A higher-than-expected reading could lead to further market jolts as it could imply an even faster tightening of US monetary policy, especially after last week’s NFPs came out sharply accelerating,” warns M Boy. .
As a reminder, the unemployment rate has – it is a surprise – slightly increased to 4% of the active population, but job creations have exploded expectations, whereas earlier in the week, the survey by the ADP firm show a negative balance. Such a gap between ADP and NFP is rare, even if the methodologies are different. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has therefore just published 467,000 job creations, literally exploding the consensus (110,000). “Job growth continued in leisure, events, business services, retail, and transportation and warehousing,” read the latest NFP report. .
This week, “investors’ attention will also be held by the USA/Russia conflict and the movements on the Ukrainian border, as well as by the pressure surrounding the English Prime Minister”, adds Vincent Boy, concerning other potential market drivers , (geo)politics for their part.
In the immediate future, on the statistical side, there is little to eat on Tuesday. The NFIB Small Business Index barely strayed from target at 97.1. As for the monthly deficit of the US trade balance (December), it came out at -80.7 billion dollars, slightly beating the consensus.
On the securities side, investors had to sort through a new wave of publications, foremost among which was that of BNP Paribas, which unveiled record annual profits of nearly 10 billion euros but a strategic plan for 2025 which struggling to convince the market. After an opening down 4%, the title managed to end symbolically in the green (+0.47%). Renault for its part advanced by 1.25% while its partner Nissan raised its annual operating profit forecast. Within the CAC, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfiel (+3.1%) climbed to the highest step of the podium, ahead of ArcelorMittal (+3%). Like the day before, the steelmaker was sought before the publication of its results on Thursday before the stock market. Axa (+2.2%) benefited from the raising of Morgan Stanley’s outperformance rating.
Tensions on long rates penalized a few pure growth files such as Dassault Systèmes (-2.34% to 41.275 euros), Wordline (-2.39% to 42.805 euros), or Eurofins (-3.21 % to 87.97 euros).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended in positive territory on Tuesday, like the Dow Jones (+1.06% to 35,462 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+1.28% at 14,194 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, nibbling 0.84% to 4,521 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1,1400. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $91.30.
To follow on the agenda this Wednesday, as a priority, across the Atlantic, wholesaler stocks at 4:00 p.m. and crude stocks at 4:30 p.m. Already published, the German trade surplus for the month of December missed expectations (+6.8 billion euros), against +10.9 billion euros in November.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
An oblique line of support gave way on Monday under the sectorally federated assaults of the selling camp, in a very high level of participation. This release of selling energy at this stage, in a single session (24/01), constitutes a major technical fact which characterizes the hypersensitivity of a market which is increasingly and continuously questioning the levels of valuation of the shares. . The entry into the bear market is not formally characterized, but the situation calls for the greatest vigilance under this slant. She was reinstated at the very end of the week. We put her under close surveillance.
In the immediate future, drawing a bevel (wedge) in hourly data is not very engaging. The three-color flagship index came out on Thursday, from below, in accelerating volumes.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7115.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 6890.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
©2022 News Bulletin 247
I am currently a news writer for News Bulletin247 where I mostly cover sports news. I have always been interested in writing and it is something I am very passionate about. In my spare time, I enjoy reading and spending time with my family and friends.
