(News Bulletin 247) – The Parisian index ended 2023 on a good note. The CAC 40 had a great year which saw it break its records. On the value side, certain industrial groups like Stellantis, Schneider Electric and Saint-Gobain shone.

“It was the last session,” to quote the Eddy Mitchell song. And the CAC 40 finally ended the year, this Friday, December 29, on a good note by gaining 0.11% to 7,543.18 points.

As very often during the last session, the market had to face a certain calm. Up sharply for most of the day, the Parisian index was penalized a little at the end of the session by the decline on Wall Street, the S&P 500 falling 0.5% shortly before the European close.

On other markets, the euro should end the year above $1.10, dropping 0.05% this Friday to $1.1056, shortly before the European close. Oil is nibbling away. The March contract on North Sea Brent advanced 0.7% to $77.66 per barrel while the February contract on WTI listed in New York gained 0.6% to $72.19 per barrel. But over the whole of 2023 the two contracts lost around 10% each, weighed down by fears about the Chinese economy and by the good performance of shale oil production in the United States.

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New records in 2023

To return to 2023 and the CAC 40, the Parisian index had a good vintage, ultimately gaining 16.52%, even if this increase remains distant from the impressive rebound of 2021 (+28.85%) . The CAC 40 GR, with dividends reinvested, gained 20.14% in 2023.

The CAC 40 has, during this year, crossed its historic highs on multiple occasions during the session (with a record at 7,653.99 points on December 14) and at the close (7,596.1 points on December 15).

However, the year has not been easy. The start of 2023 proved to be thunderous, with a jump of 9.4% in the month of January alone, thanks to the hopes raised by the economic reopening of China, which allowed luxury to post impressive stock market performances on the first months of the year. But this Chinese recovery was in reality disappointing and moreover the Chinese indices experienced an atrocious 2023 year (the CSI 300 which brings together the large capitalizations of Shenzhen and Shanghai plunged by 11.4%). Luxury, for its part, became disillusioned in the second part of the year, due to the normalization of demand. As an illustration, LVMH (+7.7% this year) will underperform the CAC 40 in 2023.

In March, the bankruptcy of several regional American banks cast a chill over the entire banking sector and, consequently, over the markets. In Europe, Credit Suisse, the great Achilles heel of the Old Continent’s banking industry, had to face massive withdrawals of deposits, forcing the Swiss authorities to push it into the arms of its sister UBS. This helped to put an end to fears of contagion.

If the second part of 2023 was not marked by a major crisis, several large CAC 40 groups suffered, in the fall, after issuing warnings on results or drastically reducing their forecasts (Alstom, Worldline which left the CAC 40 in mid-December) or simply disappointed investors in the third quarter (Sanofi and to a much lesser extent LVMH).

Good business results

The fact remains that the CAC 40 was supported by the decline in inflation on both sides of the Atlantic during the year. So much so that the markets began to anticipate significant reductions in key rates in 2024 from the European Central Bank and the American Federal Reserve (Fed), of the order of 125 basis points (1.25 % ) for the first, and from 175 points to 150 basis points for the second. This phenomenon triggered an end-of-year rally across all global markets.

Let us also highlight the good quality of business results. As an illustration, more than two-thirds of the 38 companies in the index publishing half-yearly accounts corresponding to the first six months of 2023 saw their net profit increase.

A sign that the rise in the market affected almost all sectors, 34 of the 40 stocks in the CAC 40 ended the year in the green.

Several industrial groups have had a good run. Driven by its sparkling results, with its impressive profitability (a current operating margin of 14.4% and a profit of 10.9 billion euros in the first half), Stellantis is finally reaching the stars, and signs the strongest increase in CAC 40 (+59%). The Carlos Tavares method, which combines iron discipline on costs and robust “pricing power”, ended up seducing investors.

Saint-Gobain (+45.52%) and Publicis (+41.23%) have for their part been able to demonstrate the relevance of their transformation. The first city has strengthened itself in growing markets, such as construction chemicals. The oldest company in the CAC 40 has, with each publication in 2023, delighted the market. Publicis, for its part, has published growth in its activity which has outpaced analysts on several occasions, with Arthur Sadoun’s group winning contracts and market share thanks in particular to its shift towards data analysis. Schneider Electric (+38.66%) is also having a good year and has recently returned to the very exclusive club of CAC groups with more than 100 billion euros in market capitalization.

Let us also mention L’Oréal (+34.95%) and Hermès (+32.55%) which posted good performances while luxury suffered in the second part of the year. But Hermès lived up to its rank, never disappointing the market with each of its publications, which illustrates the resilience of the saddler. L’Oréal, for its part, suffered from the poor Chinese economy (and an offensive by Beijing against the gray market) but demonstrated its ability to adapt by exceeding expectations in other regions of the world in the third quarter. .

Let us also take advantage of this last session to wish you, dear readers, a happy new year 2024 on behalf of all the News Bulletin 247 teams.

(Note that we will come back in an article which will be published early Saturday morning on the big winners and losers of the SBF 120).

Here is the 2023 CAC 40 ranking in variation

  • Stellantis +59.23%
  • Saint Gobain +46.02%
  • Publicis +41.37%
  • Schneider Electric +39.06%
  • Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield +37.61%
  • STMicroelectronics +37.13%
  • Saffron +36.38%
  • L’Oréal +35.09%
  • Air Liquide +33.02%
  • Hermès +32.79%
  • Dassault Systèmes +32.06%
  • Crédit Agricole SA +30.73%
  • Airbus +25.91%
  • Legrand +25.77%
  • Michelin +24.92%
  • Vinci +21.88%
  • Bouygues +21.68%
  • Capgemini +21.03%
  • Danone +19.20%
  • Veolia +19.00%
  • Engie +18.90%
  • Renault +18.00%
  • BNP Paribas+17.54%
  • Axa +13.18%
  • Thales +12.28%
  • Orange +11.02%
  • Vivendi +8.55%
  • LVMH +7.90%
  • EssilorLuxottica +7.33%
  • Edenred +6.41%
  • Carrefour +5.91%
  • TotalEnergies +5.03%
  • Arcelormittal +4.48%
  • Societe Generale +2.32%
  • Sanofi -0.09%
  • Eurofins -112.05%
  • Pernod Ricard -13.06%
  • Kering -16.09%
  • Teleperformance -40.70%
  • Alstom -46.63%