by Blandine Henault

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to fall at the opening on Friday, in the wake of a gloomy session on Wall Street, and while the session will be marked by the publication of two highly anticipated indicators, inflation in the euro zone and the employment report in the United States.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 could lose 0.5% at the opening. Futures contracts report a decline of 0.57% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.53% for the FTSE in London and 0.46% for the Stoxx 600.

European indices managed to end their first session of 2024 in the green on Thursday but the trend was more gloomy on Wall Street where the S&P 500 declined for its third consecutive session – its worst start to the year since 2015 .

Caution will also be required before the publication at 10:00 GMT of euro zone inflation figures for December. Economists polled by Reuters expect a reacceleration in price increases, to 3% over one year, a trend already observed in data released Thursday for France and Germany.

Another major meeting of the day, the official report on job creation in the United States (1:30 p.m. GMT): economists are counting on a decline in job creation to 170,000 jobs but the ADP survey published the day before showed that the sector private sector had created more jobs than expected, which removes the prospect of imminent monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

Sodexo reported on Friday organic growth in its turnover of 8.2% in the first quarter of its 2023-2024 financial year thanks to price increases and new contracts.

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in mixed order on Thursday, with only the Dow Jones narrowly entering positive territory thanks to the strength of financial securities and employment data.

The Dow Jones index gained 0.03%, to 37,440.34 points. The broader S&P-500 lost 0.34%, to 4,688.68 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.56% to 14,510.30 points.

As in the first two sessions of the year, investors favored taking profits after the surges in the main Wall Street indices at the end of last year, driven by the prospect of seeing the Fed make a shift in its monetary policy. .

IN ASIA

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended up 0.27%, as the weakness of the yen favored export stocks such as automobiles and financials.

In China, stock markets are struggling to find a clear direction amid persistent uncertainty over the strength of China’s economic recovery.

The CSI 300 fell 0.31% and the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index lost 0.6%.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng lost 0.54%.

RATES/EXCHANGES

The yield on ten-year Treasuries stands at more than 4% after an increase of 14 basis points since the start of the week.

Investors, who are still wondering about the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut, are less and less confident that such an announcement will come in March.

The dollar has also benefited from the decline in these expectations in recent days and is on track to sign its best week since mid-July.

The euro dropped 0.13% against the greenback, to 1.0929.

OIL

Crude prices are increasing, still supported by tensions in the Middle East, after having been penalized the day before by the announcement of a sharp increase in weekly stocks of gasoline and distillates in the United States.

The barrel of Brent rose 0.61% to $78.06 and that of American light crude oil (WTI) rose 0.82% to $72.78.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR JANUARY 5

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

FROM 07:00 Retail sales November -0.1% +1.1%

– over one year -0.5% -0.1%

EZ 10:00 Consumer prices December +3.0% +2.4%

EZ 10:00 November producer prices -0.1% +0.2%

– over one year -8.7% -9.4%

USA 1:30 p.m. Job creation December 170,000 199,000

Unemployment rate 3.8% 3.7%

Average hourly wage +0.3% +0.4%

– over one year +3.9% +4.0%

(edited by Kate Entringer)

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