KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The euro still remains under downward pressure in the short term. Indeed, despite more hawkish comments from Christine Lagarde, the euro is unable to rebound. The European Central Bank should, through the voice of Christine Lagarde, begin to lower its rates next summer provided that employment data does not show overheating. In addition, the euro is under pressure with also very strong American statistics. The latest data on the American consumer suggests unfailing vitality: unemployment is not rising, retail sales are increasing and beating the consensus, the Michigan index is approaching its highs. Today the operators are only waiting for a speech from Christine Lagarde this afternoon. At the end of the week there will be more macroeconomic news. Technically the European currency is still under bearish pressure after its failure at the top of the range. We will therefore monitor the decline to 1.07 from now on. In the event of a rebound to 1.1 this will constitute a new opportunity to sell the European currency.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
Our entry point is at 1.0902 USD. The price target for our bullish scenario is at 1.0700 USD. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.1158 USD.
The expected profitability of this Forex strategy is 202 pips and the risk of loss is 256 pips.
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