CAC 40: LVMH pushes the Cac upwards

(News Bulletin 247) – Yesterday the macroeconomic news carried the trend in the second part of the session. Indeed, the announcements from the European Central Bank came out in line with expectations. The ECB continues to be “data dependent” on the information collected. Investors are now targeting a rate cut at the start of the summer from Bce, but expect a softening of the speech from the April meeting. On the American side, the published data show an American Gross Domestic Product (GDP) higher than expected. Indeed, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% during the last quarter of 2023. Over the year as a whole, the US economy grew by 3.1%. If we detect weak signals through microeconomics, however, we must be wary, particularly when reading the comments of the CEO of Visa. Ryan McInerney said “consumer spending remained resilient” in the latest quarter as Visa Group reported results. The released US GDP data was higher than expected, but recent data showed an increase in late credit card payments in the US. Investors are now awaiting a pivot from the American central bank, the Fed, next May. On the microeconomic side, the French luxury group, LVMH, increased its sales by 9% to reach 86.2 billion euros in 2023, in line with analyst estimates. This progression is slower than the 23% recorded in 2022. Profits increased by 8% to reach 15.2 billion euros, while the operating margin remained stable year on year, at 26%. Investors also note that this is another record year for the group. The stock is expected to rise nearly 5% in early trading based on pre-opening indicators. We will also follow Alten today, JC Decaux and Remy Cointreau which, for the latter, shows a less significant drop in sales than expected. In health, Sartorius Stedim Biotech will be in the spotlight.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The index should open in an upward gap driven by LVMH. In the event of an opening close to 7530 points, you will have to be cautious because this level constitutes a very short-term polarity which could cause prices to fall at the opening. As long as the index remains between 7600 and 7400 points, the Cac40 is neutral. Only a break at the daily close of one of the two levels would cause an acceleration.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7585.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7406.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart