BERLIN (Reuters) – Inflation in Germany, calculated according to European standards (HICP), fell a little more than expected in January to reach 3.1%, shows the first estimate published by the Federal Statistical Office.
In December, the price index calculated according to European HICP standards increased by 3.8% over one year.
This drop is explained by the decline in energy prices, which fell by 2.8% compared to January 2023, despite the end of a government measure to cap energy prices and the introduction of a higher price for carbon.
“Lower German inflation will fuel speculation about an early rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), but despite favorable headline inflation, there is still enough price pressure to be concerned,” he said. said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 3.4% in January, down from 3.5% the previous month.
Data on inflation across the eurozone will be released on Thursday. The Reuters consensus forecasts a slowdown to 2.8% in January after +2.9% in December.
In France, HICP inflation slowed to 3.4% in January, compared to +4.1% in December.
“It is not clear that this is enough for tomorrow’s figures for the whole bloc to be lower than the consensus expectation of 2.8%,” said Mateusz Urban, an economist at Oxford Economics, referring to data on German and French inflation.
“But if it does, it would increase the chances of an ECB rate cut in April.”
(Reporting Bartosz Dabrowski and Maria Martinez; Stéphanie Hamel and Gaëlle Sheehan, edited by Blandine Hénault)
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