by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise on Friday, in the wake of Wall Street, investors having digested the latest data on the evolution of price dynamics in the United States and in several European countries which generally show a slowdown in inflationary pressures.

Trade should however be cautious, the day being rich in macroeconomic indicators including data on manufacturing activity and inflation in the euro zone.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40, which recorded a record 7,977.68 points during the session on Thursday, should gain 0.40% at the opening. The Dax in Frankfurt, which also rose the day before to an unprecedented high of 17,742.48 points, could advance by 0.38%. The FTSE 100 in London is expected to rise 0.67%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.49%.

After the publication on Thursday of the PCE price index in the United States and consumer prices in Germany, Spain and France, the market will become aware this Friday at 10:00 a.m. GMT of the statistics on the evolution of consumer prices. consumption throughout the euro zone. Investors hope that this statistic will confirm the decline in inflation and the upcoming easing of monetary policies.

In addition to inflation, activity indices in the manufacturing sector in the euro zone and the United States for the month of February will also be worth monitoring while the fear of a recession on the Old Continent remains alive.

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Thursday, as inflation data and comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials fueled expectations about the timing of the central bank’s rate cut.

Traders now anticipate a first rate cut from the Fed in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch barometer.

The Dow Jones index gained 0.12%, or 47.37 points, to 38,996.39 points.

The broader S&P-500 gained 26.51 points, or 0.52%, to 5,096.27 points.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 144.18 points (0.90%) to 16,091.922 points, closing above its record of November 21, 2021, which was 16,057.44 points.

The three indices recorded a fourth consecutive monthly gain in February, of 2.22%, 5.17% and 6.12% respectively.

In terms of values, Snowflake fell 18.13% after reporting product turnover lower than Wall Street expectations.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended with a gain of 1.9% to 39,910.82 points, after reaching a new historic high during the session at 39,990.23 points. The index, which gained 7.9% over the past month, followed in the footsteps of Wall Street where investors welcomed an inflation indicator in line with expectations. The broader Topix gained 1.26% to 2,709.42 points at the close.

On the economic indicator side, manufacturing activity in Japan recorded its fastest rate of contraction in more than three and a half years in February, at 47.2, according to a private sector survey, as the slowdown in demand worsened economic prospects.

The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) however fell by 0.1%, penalized by the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, down by 0.2%. The MSCI is heading towards a weekly loss of 1%.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite advanced 0.27% and the CSI 300 rose 0.49%, with investors mainly on the lookout for new stimulus measures that could be announced by the authorities next week.

Manufacturing activity in China fell in February for a fifth consecutive month, to 49.1, after 49.2 in January, shows the official survey from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published on Friday.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

EXCHANGES/RATES

The dollar is stable (+0.01%) against a basket of reference currencies after a volatile session.

The euro nibbles 0.06%, to 1.0809 dollars, and the pound sterling trades at 1.2625 dollars (+0.02%).

The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds is virtually unchanged, at 4.2542%, after a decline of four points the day before.

OIL

The oil market is rising pending the publication of the OPEC+ decision on production quotas: Brent rose by 0.46% to 82.29 dollars per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) by 0.40% to $78.57.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR MARCH 1:

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

FR 08:50 S&P Global/HCOB Index February 46.8 46.8*

manufacturer (definitive)

FROM 8:55 a.m. S&P Global/HCOB Index February 42.3 42.3*

manufacturer (definitive)

EZ 09:00 S&P Global/HCOB Index February 46.1 46.1*

manufacturer (definitive)

GB 09:30 S&P Global/CIPS Index February 47.1 47.1*

manufacturer (definitive)

EZ 10:00 Inflation on February 2.5% 2.8%

year(preliminary)

EZ 10:00 Unemployment rate January 6.4% 6.4%

USA 3:00 p.m. ISM manufacturing February 49.5 49.1

USA 3:00 p.m. February household morale 79.6 79.6*

the University of Michigan

(final)

*first estimate

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Jean-Stéphane Brosse)

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