PARIS (Reuters) – Investors are positioning themselves cautiously before the opening on Thursday, ahead of a monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) although expected without surprise.

Futures contracts suggest an opening down 0.21% for the Parisian CAC 40, compared to 0.32% for the Dax in Frankfurt, and 0.39% for the EuroStoxx 50. The FTSE in London is expected without variations .

The ECB should maintain its rates at their current levels, and only marginally alter its message, that inflation remains too high to be able to lower rates without additional data.

However, the meeting will not be without interest for the markets as the ECB will publish its updated economic projections for the bloc.

“With the publication of the new economic projections, President Christine Lagarde could begin to define the conditions for an easing of monetary policy. This could be seen as slightly accommodative, meaning that a weakening of the euro and a new flattening the curve are tangible risks,” say ING strategists.

The positioning of the ECB could contrast with that of the Federal Reserve, which is showing increasing confidence in a soft landing for the American economy, a return of inflation to its target of 2% without a significant increase in unemployment .

The latest indicators confirm that activity remains slow in the bloc, and in particular in Germany, the region’s largest economy.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Wednesday after comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and economic data reinforced the prospect of a rate cut this year, marking a turnaround from the monetary tightening cycle started in March 2022.

The Dow Jones index gained 0.20%, or 75.86 points, to 38,661.05 points. The broader S&P-500 gained 26.11 points, or 0.51%, to 5,104.76 points. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 91.96 points (0.58%) to 16,031.54 points.

IN ASIA

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended lower on Thursday as the yen strengthened ahead of a decision by the Bank of Japan to end its negative interest rate policy this month. The Nikkei index lost 1.23% to 39,598.71 points. While the broader Topix lost 0.44% to 2,718.54 points.

Chip testing equipment maker Advantest lost 4.48%, followed by chipmaking equipment maker Tokyo Electron, which fell 3.89%.

Chinese stocks fell as better-than-expected trade data pushed away important support for the economy. The Shanghai SSE Composite lost 0.41%, the CSI 300 0.6%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 1.4%.

RATE

US yields are stable after Jerome Powell’s latest comments. He will speak again before the Senate, from 3:00 p.m. GMT.

The ten-year Treasury yield rose 1.2 basis points to 4.1156%, while the two-year rate was unchanged at 4.5597%.

The yield on the German ten-year rose 1.1 bp to 2.341%.

CHANGES

The yen is up sharply against the dollar after comments from members of the Bank of Japan’s board of governors suggested the central bank could end its negative rate this month.

The yen strengthened by 0.85% to 148.1 yen per dollar, while the Australian dollar gained 0.3% to 0.6583 dollars.

The dollar declined by 0.15% against a basket of reference currencies, while the euro was stable at $1.09, and the pound sterling rose by 0.06% to $1.2737.

Gold hit a new record at $2,161.09 per ounce during the session after Jerome Powell’s comments, and rose 0.29% to $2,154.6 per ounce.

OIL

Oil digests Jerome Powell’s comments, and hesitates despite encouraging Chinese trade data.

Brent fell by 0.1% to $82.88 per barrel, American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) stagnated at $79.07.

(Written by Corentin Chappron, edited by Kate Entringer)

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