EUR/USD: American CPI on the menu at 1:30 p.m.

(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.

Between two major American macroeconomic publications, the NFP report on private employment on Friday and consumer prices on Tuesday, the Euro/Dollar currency pair consolidated its upward acceleration built after the last Board of Governors.

On the federal NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report: if the unemployment rate rises from 3.7% to 3.9% of the active population, job creation in the private sector clearly exceeded expectations, coming to 275 000. On the other hand, the extreme moderation of the increase in wages is clearly likely to reassure the financial community.

CPIs are expected at an annualized rate of +3.1%, in the broadest base of products, that is to say food and energy included. Note that they will be published at 1:30 p.m. and not 2:30 p.m., its usual time), quite simply because the East Coast of the United States has already switched to Winter Time, and we have not. Let us take this opportunity to point out that as a result, Wall Street opens, in this interval, at 2:30 p.m., and not 3:30 p.m.

As a reminder, last week, the Euro, a currency barometer of risk on financial markets, benefited from the moderately dovish tone of Christine Lagarde. The Institution also lowered its inflation forecast to 2.3% for 2024 compared to 2.7% previously anticipated. And for 2025, the ECB now expects inflation to reach its target of 2%. GDP growth should reach 0.6% in 2024 compared to 0.8% forecast in December, again according to the ECB.

“The ECB hopes that the weakness in demand, induced by restrictive monetary policy, will encourage companies to take this additional cost on their margins rather than increasing their prices again. Ultimately, if the members of the institution remain cautious and “data dependent” in order to validate with certainty the trajectory of inflation, a first drop in rates in June seems to be reflected in Christine Lagarde’s speech”, analyzes Thomas Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Gestion.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0930 approximately.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The upward crossing of the 20-day moving average (in dark blue) over its 50-day counterpart (in orange), if it were to happen quickly, would give the signal for the construction of a long position on the pair of currencies. Alerts are scheduled.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as Euro Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between support at 1.0810 USD and resistance at 1.1012 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART