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The Nasdaq Composite, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American market, fell by 0.96% to 15,973 points on Friday, at the end of a week spent warm below recent historic highs, a week marked by relative disappointments on the front of a return to “normal” on the inflation front. In particular, the CPI (consumer price indices) and especially the producer prices (PPI) came out quite clearly below expectations. If for the first, the rent component reassured investors, for the second, it is another matter. “Not that its absolute level of progression (+1.6% in annual data) is worrying…but it is very much higher than the consensus which was 1.1% and it is almost double the previous month (0.9%)”, notes Alexandre Baradez (IG France). “And in monthly variation (+0.6%), it is twice higher than the consensus and the previous month.”
The FOMC, which will end on Wednesday with a monetary status quo – this is a given – will attract attention through the updating of economic forecasts, the dot plots and the comments. Enough to refine, if necessary, the probabilities of a first loosening of the monetary tap in June.
“The Fed has no reason to rush,” says Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM. “The economy is holding up. Growth should reach 2% in the first quarter. The job market is doing well. Hiring should be stimulated by the public sector due to a later post-covid recovery than in the sector private.” And wage dynamics still remain firm.
On the value side, Adobe fell almost 14%, completely missing expectations for its prospects. The market will be watching closely this week at the Nvidia GTC conference (global conference on artificial intelligence dedicated to developers). The opportunity if necessary to find out more about the next generations of chips.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The old historic peak (16,212 points), dating from fall 2021, has been erased. If the index were to increase its height in the very short term, and without any form of hesitation, it would then move towards 17,000 points. In the immediate future, a short breath close to the zeniths is the preferred option. The 50-day moving average (in orange) can provide a base of support. The bullish gap of 02/22 could, if necessary, trigger a decline. In the immediate future, a continuation of the levitation on the zeniths is expected.
FORECAST
Based on the key chart factors we have identified, our view is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite Index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 16212.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 15430.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
News Bulletin 247 advice
DAILY DATA CHART
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