CAC 40: The American statistical agenda is becoming more dense

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Important macroeconomic publications are expected this Thursday (US GDP for the 1st quarter in final data) and this Friday (PCE price, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer). While waiting for these publications to provoke, if necessary, a direction, the CAC 40 remained calm on Wednesday, even taking advantage of a carefree moment to set a new historic record at 8,230 points.

Concerning American growth, “there is almost no doubt that the GDP of the United States will continue to expand during the first half of 2024. We also estimate that American activity should grow in 2024 at a rapid pace. close to its potential, in other words in a range between 1.8% and 2.0%”, for Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis Investment Managers.

As for PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices, they are expected to increase monthly by 0.3%, excluding food and energy. Coincidentally, J Powell, the head of the Fed, is due to participate a few hours later in an interview conducted by Kai Ryssdal, the host of ‘Marketplace’ during the conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy, in San Francisco . Questions from the public are expected.

On the value side, Micropole gained another 10.9%, to 1.675 euros. This is above the price of 1.50 euros proposed by Miramar, the investment company of entrepreneur Sébastien Lombardo as part of its proposed public purchase offer launched Tuesday on the digital services company of midsized. Few remarkable variations to report, however, both downwards and upwards, in compartment A of the rating, which brings together large Parisian capitalizations.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices closed Wednesday’s session in the green like the Dow Jones (+1.22%) or the Nasdaq Composite (+0.51%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.86% to 5,248 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0810. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $81.60.

On the agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the US GDP (1st quarter, final data) at 1:30 p.m., the Chicago PMI index at 1:00 p.m., and the consumer confidence index (U-Mich, revised data) at 3:00 p.m.

Let us continue to point out that since Monday, Wall Street opens at 2:30 p.m. (Paris time), and not 3:30 p.m., quite simply because the East Coast of the United States has already switched to summer time, and we have not yet. The big statistical meetings, often scheduled for 2:30 p.m., are therefore scheduled in the interval at 1:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Thanks to the crossing volumes, the bullish extension since Tuesday and the sectoral federation, we can shift the 8,000 psychological points into support, against which in the long term, a pullback (graphic rejection of confirmation) is not excluded. Now is the time to take a breather from the lessons. The CAC index has traced, in contact with the upper Bollinger band, two candles where the low points, the opening level and the closing level merge. And this before starting a slow decline towards the lower part of an ascending channel (in black) on the daily chart.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 8220.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 8000.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart