EUR/USD: The statistical agenda is getting denser this Thursday

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Thanks to a relative easing of government bond yields and in the absence, at this stage, of an escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, the Euro returned to contact with the 1, 0693$ achieve a very clean pullback.

The mood remains cautious across all risky asset classes, while numerous American macroeconomic publications are expected this Thursday. Their firmness would give further substance to the scenario of a very limited number of federal rate cuts this year.

Pictet WM strategists are now counting on two rate cuts of 25bp this year, in July and December. Compared to [leurs] previous forecasts, the scale of anticipated easing has diminished and the timing of rate cuts has been pushed back.”

On the program this Thursday, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, expected at a level still close to the floor of 200,000 new units, suggesting continued tensions on the private job market. See you at 2:30 p.m., therefore, just like for the manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Fed (Philly Fed), expected at 1.5. To be followed later at 4:00 p.m. the sales of old homes.

Interventions by Fed executives are also expected at various events across the country.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0675 approximately.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

THE pullback very clear this morning on a resistance zone ($1.0693) will invite people to take short positions again on the EURUSD currency pair, especially as the break of the 50-day moving average (in orange) by its counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) was made at a relatively large angle.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

Our entry point is at 1.0672 USD. The price target for our bearish scenario is at 1.0436 USD. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0758 USD.

The expected profitability of this Forex strategy is 236 pips and the risk of loss is 86.000000000002 pips.

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