(Reuters) – The Russian Economy Ministry on Tuesday revised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2024 upwards from 2.3% to 2.8%, while considering a weakening of the ruble and a reduction in the current account surplus in the years to come.
Russia’s economic rebound from a 2022 collapse relies heavily on state-funded arms and munitions production, as Moscow continues its war in Ukraine, masking problems that are hampering improvements in living standards Russians.
The International Monetary Fund this month raised its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth for 2024 to 3.2%, from 2.6% in January, highlighting the importance of war-related government spending and investment, as well as high oil export revenues despite Western sanctions.
Economy Minister Maxim Rechetnikov, speaking at a government meeting, said the main factor in economic growth is domestic demand for consumption and investment.
The Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2025-2026, while the ruble is expected to see a steady decline to exchange on average at 101.2 rubles per dollar in 2026, compared to about 93 currently.
(Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya, Alexander Marrow and Maxim Rodionov; Dimitri Rhodes, editing by Blandine Hénault)
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