Nasdaq Composite: Test of the zeniths, major technical event

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After a great start to May, the Nasdaq Composite index, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American stock exchange, consolidated its gains on Tuesday (-0.10% to 16,332 points), and Wednesday (-0.18 % at 16,302 points) in a market reassured by the decline of the American 10-year bond. A decline encouraged by the content of the NFP report on employment published Friday, and confirmed by the words of J Williams (President of the New York branch).

“New York Fed President John Williams said there are signs that households are more cautious in their spending, and he expects rate cuts eventually, although the decision to lower them will depend on all the available data,” report analysts from Natixis CIB Research, cited by Agence France Presse.

“Thus, the Fed could start lowering rates as soon as the summer break ends,” they add.

As a reminder, published last Friday, the April NFP showed persistent but contained tensions, less strong than anticipated in any case, on the private employment market. First of all, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9% of the active population (target at 3.8%). The average hourly wage, up 0.2%, did not rise to the consensus level (+0.3%). And finally, the number of job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture) showed a very clear contraction compared to March, at 175,000.

In the immediate future, and in the absence of major macroeconomic statistics this week, the index is testing its absolute highs, the resistance value of which is yet to be measured.

Although not included in the index, Disney shares, which fell 9.51% on Tuesday May 7 at the close, necessarily constitute a brake on the appetite for risk in the entertainment sector, directly or less directly very represented in the Nasdaq. The number of subscribers to Disney+ (streaming service) disappointed, as did the annual profit target. No technical rebound to report on the stock, which closed in balance on Wednesday.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

THE marubozu black traced Monday April 15, in increasing volumes, responds to an equivalent candle (April 4) by reinforcing the short-term bearish message. For the first time since November 3, the Nasdaq Composite closed below its 50-day moving average (in orange). The need to breathe is pressing. New marubozu candle on Wednesday April 17, coupled with an all-encompassing combination, while the ‘NVidia’ gap of February 22 has been fully filled.

The flagship index of technology stocks on the American stock market achieved a clear rebound in protest in week 17, allowing a return to the upper limit of the old ‘NVidia’ gap. There is still potential for consolidation towards 15,000 points in the very short term. In the immediate future, green dominates, validating a scenario of broader consolidation close to the peaks. The zenith test is underway, a test which will be rich in lessons.

FORECAST

Based on the key chart factors we have identified, our view is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite Index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 16550.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 15430.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

DAILY DATA CHART