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It was not won. This week, marked by two consecutive public holidays – non-working on the Paris Stock Exchange but conducive to bridging in the trading rooms – will have been the scene of a small rally, encouraged by the monetary environment. Firstly, with a scenario of two declines in Fed Funds over the year, which is no longer formally ruled out. Secondly, by the Bank of England, which yesterday showed willingness to open the door to a first rate cut in the coming months. Enough to further mark the path of the ECB, for the start of a rate cut at the end of the Governing Council next month.

The CAC index (+0.69%) closed 187 points above the psychological level of 8,000 points, and only 66 points from its historical records.

The British central bank kept rates unchanged. However, the institution is clearly heading towards a decline in the coming months. “With the progress made in ensuring that inflation remains around 2% (…) it is likely that we will need to lower rates in the coming quarters and make monetary policy less restrictive, perhaps more than expected by the market,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said at a press conference, according to comments reported by AFP.

In terms of statistics, there was little to eat on Thursday, apart from the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, which at 231,000 new registrations, exceeded the consensus. Enough to fuel the reasoning of J Williams, President of the NY Fed branch, who in a recent release, declared “that there are signs indicating that households are more cautious in their spending, and he expects to term of the rate cuts, although the decision to lower them will depend on all the available data”, report analysts from Natixis CIB Research, cited by Agence France Presse. “Thus, the Fed could start lowering rates as soon as the summer break ends,” they add.

On the value side, Stellantis has regained some color (+2.2%) after having suffered greatly in recent sessions. Renault, for its part, gained 0.9% following the results of its Japanese ally Nissan, whose operating profit forecast for the current financial year exceeded expectations. Conversely, Accor lost 2.4%, while Airbnb, which operates in a comparable market segment, froze Wall Street. The American group’s shares lost 6% shortly before the European close, while the company delivered a disappointing revenue forecast for the second quarter.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Thursday’s session in the green, against a backdrop of decline in the American 10-year bond. The Dow Jones gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.27%. The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, increased by 0.51% to 5,214 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0780. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $79.60.

On the agenda this Friday, to follow as a priority the preliminary data from the consumer confidence index (U-Mich), at 4:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The resistance level of 8,120 points gave way yesterday in insignificant volumes due to the absence of many operators. However, in the very short term, the new working framework is between these 8,120 points, and the absolute peaks close to 8,220 points, i.e. a thin band of around a hundred points.

FORECAST

Based on the key chart factors we have identified, our view is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite Index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 8220.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 8120.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

News Bulletin 247 advice

CAC 40
Neutral
Resistance(s):
8220.00 / 8253.00
Support(s):
8120.00 / 8000.00

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart

CAC 40: The absolute peaks are very close (©ProRealTime.com)