(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
All the gains of the Euro/Dollar, recorded on May 15, in the wake of inflation figures considered reassuring, have now been retraced. It must be said that the decline of the US 10 has since been thwarted by interventions by Fed executives, by the hawkish content of the Fed Minutes published on Wednesday, and by (too?) solid macroeconomic statistics published yesterday.
On Monday, two Fed executives, Michael Barr, vice-president of the Federal Reserve in charge of banking regulation, and Philip Jefferson, another vice-president of the Fed, insisted that a restrictive monetary policy should remain the norm. a long time to go for a truly effective fight against inflation. A normalization of the job market, still under strong tension, is necessary. Doubt is now entering the minds of investors looking for clues about the Fed’s future intentions regarding its rate policy.
On the Minutes, a traditional chronological report of the debates that animated the last FOMC, the document certainly highlighted the recording of notable progress on inflation. Notable but insufficient, as some members of the Board do not exclude voting for a final increase in federal rates, if necessary.
In terms of American statistics on Thursday, investors took note of the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, still very close to the threshold of 200,000 new units. Another leading indicator of inflation, the PMI activity barometers: The S&P Global composite PMI index increased to 54.4 in May, in a first estimate, against 51.3 points the previous month. This is its highest level in almost two years. These are all signals which testify to the robustness of the world’s largest economy, and which in turn fuel tensions on the bond market.
The yield on 10-year American debt (Treasuries 10 yrs) is now approaching 4.50% (4.47 at the time of writing).
Yesterday this side of the Atlantic, valuable activity benchmarks were also published.
On the scale of the entire Euro Zone for the month of May, it is the increase in industry which is the most pleasant surprise, at 47.4. Note that the score, still significantly below 50 points, suggests a contraction in the sector. In services, the score is in line with expectations, at 53.3, stable compared to the final data for April.
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, provided the following insights:
“German economic performance surpasses that of France, thanks to strong growth in the services sector, which is contracting in France. If the French manufacturing sector is doing better than its German counterpart, it However, it also fails to emerge from the recession. Although it is often tempting to compare the economic performances of various countries, and to highlight possible strengths or weaknesses, it is reassuring to note that the two main economies. of the region are generally in phase. France therefore has a good chance of catching up in the services sector, which would allow growth in the euro zone to get back on a more solid footing.”
To be continued at 2:30 p.m., orders for durable goods across the Atlantic.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0830 approximately.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
On large-scale marubozu, the currency pair shattered the technical resistance level constituted by the bearish oblique drawn in black. A recovery is underway, which may ultimately result in a pullback. The conditions in terms of entry point are not met to immediately build a position on the currency pair.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as Euro Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between support at 1.0758 USD and resistance at 1.0885 USD.
News Bulletin 247 advice
DAILY DATA CHART
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
