CAC 40: Quarterly copies and PCE prices on the program

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Complicated week for the CAC 40 which, on Thursday, broke the graphic level of 7,465 / 7,500 points, a floor weakened since June 14. The selling energy released is significant, in light of the inability to fill the opening gap, and in light of the increasing transaction volumes. The news was dominated once again this week by an avalanche of quarterly results, including Stellantis (-8.66%) and STMicroelectronics (-13.70%).

The carmaker formed by the merger of Fiat Chrysler and PSA reported a sharp drop in its results and current operating margin in the first half, while the semiconductor specialist revised its sales outlook once again, due in particular to a more complicated market in the automobile sector.

This morning it is CapGemini’s turn to revise its outlook downwards. The annual outlook is however confirmed for Air Liquide and Valeo, among other emblematic files.

In the statistical chapter on Thursday, if there was only one figure to remember, it would be the American quarterly GDP in very first estimates, at +2.8% at an annualized rate. This represents a very significant upward deviation compared to the consensus. Nothing to report regarding weekly unemployment benefit registrations, right on target.

To be complete on the side of strong variations in values, Renault dropped 7.5%, penalized by the lowering of Nissan’s prospects and the fact that it did not raise its own objectives.

Kering also fell by 7.5%, while the group warned that its profitability would fall further in the second half.

Vivendi returned 6.1%, weighed down by the disappointing results of Universal Music Group, in which it still holds 10% of the capital. The record company collapsed by more than 21% on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main stock indices ended Thursday’s session in a mixed order, with the Dow Jones managing to gain 0.20% and the Nasdaq Composite losing 0.93%. The S&P500, a benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 0.51%, just below 5,400 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1,0850. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite on financial markets, was trading around $78.10.

On the agenda this Friday, to follow across the Atlantic the core PCE prices at 2:30 p.m., as well as household income and spending, before the U-Mich consumer confidence index (U-Mich) at 1600, in revised data.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

As seen in the preamble, the flagship index of the Parisian market has broken the graphic level of 7,465 / 7,500 points, a floor weakened since June 14. The selling energy released is significant, in light of the inability to fill the opening gap, and in light of the increasing transaction volumes. The message delivered is negative.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7465.00 points.

Hourly data chart

Daily Data Chart