PARIS (Reuters) – European stock markets are expected to open higher on Monday, with several key U.S. indicators expected later this week.

Futures suggest an opening increase of 0.42% for the Paris CAC 40, against a rise of 0.4% for the FTSE in London, 0.49% for the Dax in Frankfurt, and 0.47% for the EuroStoxx 50.

July CPI inflation will be released Wednesday, a key indicator of the path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Indeed, the institution remains attentive to price risks, despite the weak July jobs report, and a higher-than-expected figure would complicate the September decision.

Traders believe a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the next meeting is certain, giving a 50-bp cut a 50-bp chance. Several US monetary policymakers, including Michelle Bowman, Susan Collins and Thomas Barkin, have nevertheless warned that rates will not fall very sharply, very quickly.

“Market pricing suggests that traders remain nervous despite these talk of a slow rate cut, and last week’s volatility perhaps suggests that it would only take one or two bad numbers to trigger further market turbulence,” Rabobank strategists said.

Many indicators this week will point to this risk.

Producer prices on Tuesday, and especially retail sales and the “Philly Fed” and “Empire State” activity indicators will shed light on the state of the American economy, the main subject of concern for the markets which see in the weakening of the employment markets the beginnings of a recession.

Across the Atlantic, results, including those of Walmart, Cisco and Home Depot, should also stimulate discussion.

Investors will also be watching industrial production and retail sales figures from China on Thursday, as the Chinese economy struggles.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

ON WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Friday, after a turbulent start to the week marked by fears of a recession in the United States and the strength of the yen.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.16%, or 61.25 points, to 39,507.74. The broader S&P 500 gained 28.06 points, or 0.53%, to 5,347.37. The Nasdaq Composite gained 84.09 points, or 0.50%, to 16,744.11.

In stocks, video game publisher Take-Two Interactive Software TTWO.O gained 4.35% after saying it expected net bookings to increase in fiscal 2026 and 2027.

Online travel agency Expedia EXPE.O jumped 10.21% after its second-quarter profit beat analysts’ expectations.

IN ASIA

The Japanese stock market is closed for Mountain Day, a public holiday.

Chinese indices are rising, with indicators expected to gauge the continuation of the recovery in China on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 0.19%, Shanghai’s SSE Composite is up 0.19%, and the CSI 300 is up 0.14%.

RATE

Yields were little changed in the United States ahead of the release of a crucial inflation gauge on Wednesday.

The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 3.9398%, while the two-year yield was steady at 4.0572%.

CHANGES

The yen is eroding in the absence of catalysts and while Japanese markets are closed today.

In Asia, the yen declined by 0.37% to 147.15 yen per dollar, the Australian dollar rose by 0.15% to 0.6582 dollars.

The dollar gained 0.04% against a basket of benchmark currencies, the euro rose 0.04% to $1.092, and the pound strengthened 0.05% to $1.2766.

OIL

Oil is up slightly as geopolitical tensions continue to support prices.

Brent rose 0.29% to $79.89 per barrel, while American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.48% to $77.21.

NO MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR AUGUST 12

(Blandine Henault)

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