EUR/USD: Battery of macroeconomic information.

(News Bulletin 247) – The European currency continues its ascent while macroeconomic information has multiplied in recent hours and this pace should further accelerate in number and importance. First of all, traders were able to take note of the Fed minutes last night. These indicate that several members of the Fed acknowledged that there were arguments in favor of a reduction in interest rates. This information reassures the market about future rate cuts this year. The markets are counting on an easing of around 100 basis points for the rest of the year. In addition, the Labor Bureau published an update of its figures. This publication, produced late, indicates that employers created fewer jobs than estimated. The estimate indicated an average of 242,000 per month. Today, the monthly pace is more likely to be around 174,000. This is the largest downward revision since 2009. This information has helped strengthen the euro against the dollar. The potential upcoming easing of geopolitical tensions also invites risk-taking and therefore contributes to this weakening of the dollar. Indeed, the American president continues to put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the “urgency” of reaching a ceasefire agreement to end the war in Gaza and obtain the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Today, many publications are expected. At 1:30 p.m., we expect the minutes of the European Central Bank. Then across the Atlantic, we expect at 2:30 p.m. the weekly unemployment registrations, the PMI activity indices as well, as well as sales of existing homes. Finally, tomorrow is expected the Jackson Hole symposium. As a reminder, the Jackson Hole Symposium is an annual meeting of central bankers, economists, policy makers, and other financial sector experts.

Technically, the European currency is still trending upwards, with no signs of weakness. We will wait for a return to the daily moving averages to position ourselves for buying in the short-term upward trend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphic factors we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the short term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity rates are positioned between the support at 1.1134 USD and the resistance at 1.1250 USD.

Hourly data chart