EUR/USD: Currency traders meet at 2:30 p.m.

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The Euro/Dollar currency pair remained “stuck” against its 20-day moving average (in dark blue), around $1.1110 per Euro, awaiting key figures on American employment. This is the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report on the health of employment across the Atlantic in August. Key for two reasons: the first is that the Fed is particularly dependent on this data, which itself has a strong correlation with price dynamics. The second is that the last report, in July, had proven extremely disappointing.

So, meet at 2:30 p.m. for the money changers. Here are the main expectations: 164,000 job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture), an unemployment rate down to 4.2% of the active population and an increase in average hourly wages to 0.3%.

Traders got a sneak peek yesterday, albeit a very partial one, at U.S. employment. Weekly jobless claims fell last week to 227,000, while ADP’s monthly survey showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in August, to 99,000. But the survey is only an imperfect prelude to the much more closely watched official numbers, which will be released Friday.

Swiss Life AM strategists believe “that fears of recession will have some periodic bouts. The expected slowdown in the American economy has occurred, and we expect a further rise in the unemployment rate. From 4.3% today, it should reach 4.7% at the end of 2025, a scale that neither the Fed (4.1% at the end of 2025) nor the consensus (4.2% annual average in 2025) expects.”

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1,1110 approximately.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

In contact with its 20-day moving average (in dark blue), the EURUSD spot is completing a breathing phase, within an upward trend which is measured by the growing gap between the aforementioned moving average and its 50-day counterpart (in orange).

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity rates are positioned between the support at 1.1012 USD and the resistance at 1.1134 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART