(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 ended slightly down on Monday, while the American index pushed back its high during the session.

The Paris Stock Exchange clearly lacked inspiration to start this new week. The CAC 40 closed slightly down 0.21% at 7,449.44 points on Monday evening.

This is not the case for the Dow Jones, which set a new record during the session, reaching 41,733.97 points. At the close of the European markets, the Dow Jones was still up 0.16% at 41,460.38 points.

A drop yes, but of what magnitude?

The American index was awakened by the rare statistic on the agenda this Monday afternoon, and it concerns industrial activity in the New York region, which against all expectations rebounded to its highest level since April 2022. Measured by the Empire State index, this activity rebounded in September to 11.5 points, thwarting the consensus of economists who anticipated a slight deterioration to -4.75 points, after 4.7 points in August.

In Paris, the trend remains fragile at the start of a week marked by the next monetary policy decision of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), Wednesday. The American central bank will, barring an improbable surprise, begin its cycle of lowering key rates. Investors are assessing the probabilities of a reduction of 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) and 50 basis points (0.50 percentage points).

“The equity and bond markets have already anticipated this first upcoming rate cut. As proof, US stocks have recovered in recent days while US short-term rates have continued to fall sharply to their lowest levels since 2022,” notes Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.

“The question is no longer whether the Fed will take action, but rather how quickly this new monetary cycle will unfold against a backdrop of macroeconomic data suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and a slight deceleration in the economy,” the specialist continues.

“On the one hand, there are the pessimists who see the American economy on the brink of recession and are arguing in favour of a 50 basis point cut. On the other hand, there are the realists, of which we are one, who consider that the American economy is doing well. A 50 basis point cut would be surprising,” says Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

Rexel courted, but not seduced

In terms of values, Rexel finished at the top of the SBF 120 (+9.1%) after having refused the advances of the American group QXO.

The Rexel title is followed by Virbac (+8%) driven by good half-year results.

Worldline continues to hit record lows, and dropped another 15.2% on Monday, after having already lost 14.4% on Friday following a new profit warning and the announcement of the departure of its CEO.

The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1111. Oil advanced sharply. The November contract on North Sea Brent rose 1.15% to $72.43 a barrel, while the October contract on WTI listed in New York rose 1.3% to $68.64 a barrel.