EUR/USD: Spot firmness before PCE

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If the encouraging messages from China allow risk assets to maintain a certain firmness, the Euro / Dollar currency pair, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, is plateauing near its peaks annual figures, this weekend which will be marked by the highly anticipated publication, at 2:30 p.m., of the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices. An appointment to mark in red in the agenda of currency traders in the sense that this indicator is the preferred measure of the Fed in its assessment of inflation, even before the CPI (consumer prices). The index is expected to increase by 0.2% monthly for the month of August.

The traditional household spending and income will also be revealed in the country of supreme consumption, as well as the consumer confidence index (U-Mich) at 4:00 p.m.

In terms of statistics on Thursday, operators took note of the final data on American quarterly GDP, at +3.0% on an annual basis, with no deviation from the first estimates. New registrations for unemployment benefits over a week totaled 218,000, showing signs of chronic tension in the job market. Finally, orders for durable goods, excluding transport equipment, increased over one month by 0.5%, well beyond expectations. The scenario of a soft landing for the world’s largest economy is gradually taking shape.

China’s official Xinhua news agency reported that the Chinese Politburo meeting on Thursday decided that new measures were required to support the economy and achieve the 5% growth target in 2024. The urgency to revive the real estate sector , which has been in decline for three years, was also highlighted. Some media also report measures to reduce youth unemployment, or even, like Bloomberg, capital injections into state banks. Enough to encourage the market to bet on new stimulus measures in the coming days. This would be in addition to a first package unveiled by the People’s Bank of China on Tuesday.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against around $1.1150.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The spot once again weakens an oblique line of graphic support, relaunching the idea of ​​the formation of a Chartist pattern. A clear break from this threshold would weaken the currency pair for the weeks to come. A neutral position is adopted while waiting, if necessary, for a signal.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as Euro Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between support at 1.1012 USD and resistance at 1.1250 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART