(News Bulletin 247) – The aeronautics group delivered 50 aircraft in September and will have to work harder to meet its target of around 770 deliveries this year. The analysts are divided.

It’s a question that comes up (almost) every end of the year: will Airbus meet its delivery target for the current financial year? Remember that the aircraft manufacturer had already lowered its target last June, when the company issued a heavy profit warning. The former EADS had gone from a target of around 800 to around 770 aircraft for 2024, also slashing its cash and profitability forecasts.

This warning clearly sent the action into a “penalty box”. Since the start of the year, Airbus shares have lost 9% while the CAC 40 is almost stable (-0.1%) and its supplier Safran has gained 28%.

Airbus continues to suffer in its civil aeronautics division from multiple problems in its logistics chain, particularly with engine manufacturers Pratt&Whitney (Raytheon) and CFM International (Safran and General Electric), cabin equipment and even aerostructures (fuselage, wings). …).

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An extra effort to accomplish

The market is beginning to fear that Airbus will be forced to further reduce its delivery target. Guillaume Faury, the company’s executive president, certainly confirmed Airbus’ 2024 prospects on Monday during an event organized in India by Gifas (Groupement des industries françaises aéronautiques et spatial) which he currently chairs.

But the delivery figures for the month of September are likely to give food for thought to the most skeptical.

In the ninth month of the year, Airbus delivered 50 aircraft, bringing the total for the whole of 2024 to 497. To meet its target of around 770 aircraft in 2024, the group will have to deliver on average 91 aircraft per month. in the fourth quarter, calculates Royal Bank of Canada. The Canadian bank recalls that Airbus and Boeing deliver, each year, an average of 30% of their aircraft in the fourth quarter. To reach 770 aircraft, Airbus will have to raise this ratio to around 35%.

For now, the market is not too scared. Airbus shares opened down 1% this Thursday and are now up 0.4% around 10:10 a.m.

The delivery figures for September had already been released a few days ago by the Reuters agency. “September’s performance was already integrated by the market. Investors are a bit in ‘wait and see’ mode, but they have already started to partially integrate a revision of the delivery target for 2024”, explains an analyst from the sector. “For the moment we can give management the benefit of the doubt, but a further reduction would undermine its credibility,” he warns.

In the past, Airbus had already managed to meet tight targets at the cost of significant efforts at the end of the year, particularly in December. This was the case in 2018, and in 2019, the group delivered a record 138 aircraft in December. But in 2022, the company had to give up its target at the time (700 devices).

A target under pressure

“As the third quarter results approach (October 30, Editor’s note) we believe that investors are increasingly cautious about the company’s delivery prospects and that Airbus will once again lower its forecasts. delivery for 2024”, writes Royal Bank of Canada. “We believe that the delivery target of 770 aircraft for 2024 could be called into question given the current pace of production and supply chain constraints,” adds the Canadian bank.

UBS on Tuesday already included in its forecasts a lowering of Airbus’ delivery target, counting on 750 aircraft for 2024.

For Jefferies, the Airbus target “is difficult but still achievable”. The bank estimates that the risk is around 10 aircraft, and that the company would not have too much difficulty reaching 760 aircraft. “It will be difficult, but not impossible, to achieve the delivery targets set for the end of the year,” agrees Deutsche Bank.

Remember that Airbus deliveries are closely followed by the market, because the bulk of payment for an aircraft occurs when the aircraft is delivered to its customer. In other words, the trajectory of the group’s deliveries is closely linked to that of the company’s cash.

Airbus must in particular increase the production of its best-seller, the A320 neo single-aisle family, the group’s real cash cow. In the medium term, the aeronautical company intends to reach a production rate of 75 aircraft per month in this family. But since 2021, due to persistent tensions on its supply chain, the former EADS has postponed the horizon of this target several times.

First set at 2025, this objective was postponed to 2026. In June, the company this time postponed it to 2027.