CAC 40: LVMH makes a sluggish copy, the 7,500 points under pressure

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Once again, luxury was not at the party at the Paris Stock Exchange. In the absence of new details on the consumer recovery measures in China, and after the relative disappointment caused by LVMH’s quarterly accounts (after the Stock Exchange), this highly strategic sector for France suffered new sell-offs, at the image of Christian Dior (-2.32%), Hermès (-1.84%), or Interparfums (-4.98%). LVMH for its part gave up 1.94%. And will be THE stock to watch tomorrow at the opening.

Over the period from July to the end of September, the number one luxury company recorded revenues of 19.076 billion euros. This reflects a decline in like-for-like sales of 3%. According to a consensus mentioned by Barclays and cited by Reuters, analysts expected revenues to increase by 2% on a comparable basis and revenues of 20.33 billion euros.

TotalEnergies (-4.80%), another behemoth of the flagship index, weighed heavily, while crude oil prices melted. The barrel of light Texas crude (WTI), one of the world’s oil benchmarks, even fell below the symbolic threshold of $70, while fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East are fading. Conversely, Air France-KLM gained 4.4%, helped by the fall in black gold, with the fuel bill constituting one of the group’s main expenditure items.

US President Joe Biden indicated that the United States was discussing a potential attack by Israel on Iran’s oil infrastructure. This threat would now be over, according to the latest information from the Washington Post. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told the Biden administration that he was prepared to strike military installations rather than oil or nuclear installations in Iran, the American daily reports citing two officials familiar with the matter.

To be complete on the value side, lOréal lost 3.9% penalized by a negative cross-reading of the results of its comparable company, the American Coty, which fell by 10% on Wall Street. Another disappointment, but on the side of the technology sector which suddenly fell on the stock market at the end of the afternoon, shaken by the ASML shock wave. The semiconductor specialist dropped 15.6% in Amsterdam this Tuesday evening after announcing its third quarter results in advance. It published disappointing order intake and lowered its targets for 2025. It dragged STMicroelectronics (-2.7%) and Soitec (-9.6%) into its fall.

Rather calm over this first part of the week, the macroeconomic agenda will gradually intensify to reach its climax on Thursday, with for the United States retail sales, registrations for unemployment benefits, the Philly Fed, industrial production ). On Friday, Chinese GDP will be revealed for Q3, expected to increase by 4.6% year-on-year, as the country refines its recovery plan.

Operators will quickly turn, tomorrow, to the outcome of a new Council of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB). “The European Central Bank (ECB) will again lower its key rate by 25 basis points this Thursday. That’s a certainty. In an ideal world, it would take inspiration from the Federal Reserve and lower it by 50 basis points. base While Germany is in recession, the European manufacturing industry is collapsing, and energy prices are four times higher in Europe than on the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB. is concerned about a possible price-wage loop in the services sector which has struggled to materialize since the start of the year”, analyzes Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Tuesday’s session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.75%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-1.01%). . The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, lost 0.76% to 5,815 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0880. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $70.30.

On the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, priority will be given to import prices in the United States at 2:30 p.m. and a speech from Ms. Christine Lagarde at 8:45 p.m. The President of the ECB will speak at an event at the Bank of Slovenia in Ljubljana.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The nervous oscillations will continue to be concentrated between two major levels, the 7,465 / 7,500 points on the one hand, and the 7,690 / 7,700 points on the other. A quotation band from which an exit would release additional energy. But in the immediate future, contrary movements, in a clear direction, are still expected. The 7,500 points are under more pressure this week, a risk for the flagship index.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7690.00 points.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart