WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Financial leaders from around the world will meet in Washington this week amid high geopolitical tensions, armed conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, concerns over the Chinese economy and uncertainties over result of the American presidential election.

The meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are expected to attract more than 10,000 people from finance ministries, central banks and civil society to discuss efforts to revive growth, manage the problem of over-indebtedness and finance the transition to renewable energies.

But the subject that will be present in everyone’s minds will be the possibility of a victory by Republican candidate Donald Trump in the American presidential election on November 5, which would shake up the international economic system.

“Arguably the most important issue for the global economy – the outcome of the US election – is not on this week’s official agenda, but it’s on everyone’s mind,” said Josh Lipsky, former IMF official and member of the American think tank Atlantic Council.

The election “has enormous implications for trade policy, for the future of the dollar, for who the next chairman of the Federal Reserve is, and all of that impacts every country in the world,” he said. -he added.

Trade tensions with Beijing, the industrial policy of rich countries and the increases in customs duties decided by the Biden administration on certain Chinese products will be at the heart of the subjects discussed during the meetings.

The IMF will also update its global growth forecasts on Tuesday.

The Managing Director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, announcing a “difficult future”, reported last week a bleak outlook, with global debt forecasting, according to her, slow growth in the medium term.

Kristalina Georgieva, however, tempered her pessimism, citing pockets of resistance, notably in the United States and India, which compensate for the weakness of China and Europe.

Last year, Hamas launched a surprise assault on Israel even as IMF and World Bank meetings were being held in Morocco.

Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the economic impact has been largely limited to the regions directly involved or bordering it: Gaza, the West Bank, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan.

“If the escalation jeopardizes oil and gas deliveries, the repercussions on the global economy could be much greater,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview with Reuters.

Support for Ukraine will also be one of the main topics discussed, with G7 democracies aiming to reach a political agreement by the end of October to grant Kyiv a $50 loan billion dollars (46.09 billion euros), guaranteed by frozen Russian sovereign assets.

This loan is partly considered as a bulwark in the event of Donald Trump’s victory in November, the former American president having threatened to “leave Ukraine”.

(Reporting by David Lawder; with contributions from Karin Strohecker and Libby George in London; by Mara Vîlcu, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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