(News Bulletin 247) – Several stocks are progressing on the Paris Stock Exchange following the victory of the Republican candidate. Luxury benefits from forecasts of a more favorable environment for consumption, the defense of hopes of increases in European military budgets.

Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidential election was therefore made official this morning, Wednesday, November 6, following victory in several key states, including the very crucial state of Pennsylvania.

The market had already recorded its victory several hours ago. Around 11:25 a.m., the CAC 40 jumped 1.6%, with Trump’s policy generally considered favorable to the stock markets. Several values ​​stand out, for different reasons. Here’s an overview.

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Luxury, a cyclical sector that would benefit from support for consumption

LVMH, Hermès and Kering take 1.8%, 2.3% and 2.6% respectively. In the same vein, Essilorluxottica, sometimes associated with the world of luxury, gained 3%.

“The victory of Donald Trump constitutes an opportunity for cyclical sectors because we expect the American economy to be more robust under his mandate. And luxury is one of these cyclical sectors,” explains Luca Solca, analyst at Bernstein .

Another financial intermediary notes that the “market sees the glass half full”. “Luxury can benefit from the fall of the euro against the dollar (-1.5% this Wednesday, Editor’s note), which is good for exporting companies such as luxury groups, from Donald Trump’s tax measures and from anticipations provisions favorable to household consumption”, he adds.

“Certainly luxury groups would be affected by the increases in customs duties desired by Trump, because only Louis Vuitton produces in the United States. But luxury groups can iron out the price increases linked to the increase in customs duties. In addition, American buyers may travel, and decide to buy luxury goods in Europe rather than in the United States, if these customs duties are put in place. And investors may also say that this is the case. act before all about announcement effects”, concludes this financial intermediary.

Defense, with the hope of budget increases

All aeronautics and defense groups are making progress. Dassault Aviation and Thales took 1.6% and 3% respectively before moderating their respective increases.

“Investors were waiting for the American election to increase their positions in the defense sector. The fact that Trump wins means a probable adjustment of the aid budget to Ukraine, which is negative for a group very exposed to this conflict like Rheinmetall But above all it offers a clearer vision on other subjects: the United States will probably transfer more funding for global security to Europe which will have to increase its military budgets. European defense”, explains Yan Derocles by Oddo BHF.

Safran and Airbus each gain around 2%, moreover. “For the civil side of aeronautical groups like Safran or Airbus, there is no great concern to have. Safran is not affected by a potential strengthening of customs tariffs and Airbus has a final assembly line in the United States Some elements at Airbus level could be taxed, but this would not be significant,” explains Yan Derocles.

Publicis, Sodexo, Stellantis, Schneider Electric supported by tax increases

In a note published at the beginning of October, Oddo BHF cited Publicis, which takes 4%, as one of the European stocks to bet on to anticipate a victory for Donald Trump.

Publicis would be mainly driven by the reduction in corporate tax (to 15% compared to 21% currently) desired by Donald Trump, and potentially by economic measures to support consumption, advertising spending being correlated at 90% with the level of consumption.

The tax argument is also put forward for the collective catering specialist Sodexo (+2.3%), of which the United States represents the largest market and around 63% of its operating profit, according to Oddo BHF. The group would especially benefit from the reduction in corporate taxes desired by the Republican candidate. Which would have an impact of 5% on its earnings per share, the broker calculates.

Stellantis (+3.9%), for which the United States constitutes the largest market, would also benefit from these tax measures. In addition, the automobile group may also be driven by positive market sentiment due to Donald Trump’s desire to ease off electric vehicles. Carlos Tavares, the general manager of Stellantis, explained at the start of the year that margins in electricity are lower than in thermal, even if they remain in the green.

Moreover, the other American manufacturers “from Detroit”, General Motors and Ford, took 3% and 4% respectively in pre-opening on Wall Street.

The energy efficiency technology specialist Schneider Electric climbed 2.6%. “There is good and bad in Trump’s agenda for action. But Schneider Electric should benefit from the continuation of a favorable tax environment, while North America represents around 30% of its turnover. “In addition, the Trump administration should have a strong focus on infrastructure, such as data centers, which will support the group’s dynamics,” explains an analyst.

Vallourec and “drill, baby, drill”

Vallourec wins 5%? one of the largest increases in the SBF 120, benefiting from Donald Trump’s energy policy.

The Republican candidate promised to halve the price of fuel at the pump in the twelve months following the election, and to make the United States the “dominant” energy producer in the world. Which would result in more drilling for black gold (with the famous “drill, baby, drill”). Remember that a little less than two-thirds of American oil production goes through shale oil and therefore through hydraulic fracturing.

This desire to accelerate production would benefit hydrocarbon specialists but also manufacturers of drilling equipment, in particular tubers like the French company Vallourec. The latter “is completely integrated into the United States, does not import its tubes and therefore does not pay customs duties” unlike its Italian competitor Tenaris, underlined at the beginning of October Baptiste Lebacq, analyst of the oil services sector of Oddo BHF.