CAC 40: Preserving the 7,200 points, the technical issue of the week

(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.

NVidia’s long-awaited quarterly results, published Wednesday evening after the close, will not have shaken the markets on either side of the Atlantic. The firm specializing in chips with very high computing power, has produced an excellent copy in absolute value, but which fails to satisfy shareholders, who are legitimately ultra-greedy on these valuation levels. However, the results narrowly exceeded the expectations of leading analysts. It must be said that revenue forecasts for the fourth quarter only modestly exceeded expectations.

The copy made by the company is almost faultless. But its revenue forecast for the fourth quarter (which will close at the end of January) reflected an inevitable deceleration in its growth. Which raised eyebrows among investors. “Nvidia: when magnificent is not enough”, summarizes Stephen Innes, from Spi AM. “Revenue forecasts, while strong, failed to trigger the sense of euphoria that Nvidia has often inspired. With the market heavily focused on AI, anything short of a smash hit is apparently received with skepticism,” he adds.

Gene Munster, manager at Deepwater Asset Management, points out that “the market noise” was more around $38.5 billion. Bloomberg recalls for its part that its consensus of 37.1 billion dollars reflected an average with very significant differences, the most optimistic forecast going up to… 41 billion dollars.

At the end of a relatively volatile session, NVidia shares ended up a very modest 0.53%, after setting historic records during the session, at $152.89.

The CAC managed to gain 0.21% at the close on Thursday, in the immediate vicinity of 7,200 points, which as a reminder constitute a very fragile support level, harassed since November 13. Its preservation at the weekly close is clearly the technical issue of this session.

In terms of statistics, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits stood at 213,000 new units, still synonymous with tensions on the job market. The “Philly Fed”, on the other hand, disappointed by falling into negative territory, at -5.5. RAS on sales of old homes across the Atlantic, which came out perfectly on target.

On the value side, Schneider Electric (+1.4%) and Airbus (+1.2%) recorded the largest increases in the CAC 40 while Kering finished bottom (-3.02%). Excluding CAC 40, Soitec gained 7.5%. The producer of semiconductor materials jumped, after confirming its objectives for the 2024-2025 financial year, which greatly reassured the market.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices finished in green territory, symbolically for the Nasdaq Composite (+0.03%), more consistently for the Dow Jones (+1.06%). The S&P500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, played the averages (+0.53%), closing at 5,950 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0470. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $70.10.

On the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow as a priority a battery of barometer indicators of PMI activity (services and industry) on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as the U-Mich consumer confidence index , in revised data for October, at 4:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

With a candle with a long red body on Tuesday, November 12, the index defined the amplitude of a new working base, between 7,200 points on the one hand and 7,340 points on the other hand, which we switch to chart resistance zone. The thick volumes of this key session, combined with the opening gap, give meaning to the threshold break.

The 7,200 points constitute an increasingly fragile harassed floor. Its preservation at the weekly close is clearly the technical issue of this session.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7340.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7200.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart