PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to be hesitant on Monday at the opening of a week marked by the next meeting of the European Central Bank and the publication of CPI inflation figures in the United States.
Futures contracts suggest an opening increase of 0.1% for the Parisian CAC 40, against 0.04% for the FTSE in London, a decline of 0.04% for the Dax in Frankfurt and of 0.16% for the EuroStoxx 50.
The ECB will announce its decision on its rates on Thursday, which it should lower by 25 basis points, according to market expectations.
Some operators estimate that the central bank could lower its rates by 50 bp, given the weakness of activity in the euro zone and the risks weighing on the economy of the bloc, from American customs duties to the slowdown in China.
“A larger drop could suggest a greater sense of urgency, or even panic, on the part of the ECB – especially since the market considers such a decision unlikely,” Rabobank strategists nuance.
“The impact on confidence could cancel out the expected impact of a deeper reduction. And the ECB’s economic projections will probably be less downgraded than some monetary policy makers think.”
In the United States, operators will await CPI inflation on Wednesday which will help to understand to what extent inflation remains persistent, after a monthly employment report published on Friday which suggests good resistance in American activity.
The Sentix sentiment indicator is due during Monday’s session, while price momentum in China surprised on the downside for November, arguing for more support measures.
Geopolitical uncertainty could also liven up the exchanges, the Syrian rebels having invaded Damascus on Sunday without encountering opposition and toppled President Bashar al Assad.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended in mixed order on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting session highs after the monthly employment report, while the Dow Jones finished in the red, penalized by the sharp drop recorded. by UnitedHealth.
The Dow Jones index fell 0.28%, or 123.19 points, to 44,642.52 points. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 15.16 points, or 0.25% to 6,090.27 points. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 159.05 points, or 0.81% to 19,859.774 points.
UnitedHealth fell by 5.06%, two days after the assassination of the general director of the group’s main subsidiary.
IN ASIA
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is progressing in the wake of Wall Street’s rise, also supported by good economic figures published on Monday which show that Japanese growth was higher than expected in the third quarter. The Nikkei index gained 0.11% to 39,132.65 points. The broader Topix took 0.17% to 2,731.89 points.
Stocks linked to semiconductors fall on profit taking. Advantest lost 4.3%, Tokyo Electron 1%.
Chinese stocks are falling after the publication of lower-than-expected inflation figures which show that deflationary pressures persist in the world’s second-largest economy. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index declined by 0.66%, the Shanghai SSE Composite by 0.36%, the CSI 300 by 0.45%.
RATE
American yields vary little in a wait-and-see context before the publication of CPI inflation figures in the United States on Wednesday.
The ten-year Treasury yield declined 1.6 bps to 4.1375%, while the two-year Treasury yield was stable at 4.0995%.
CHANGES
Geopolitical uncertainty benefits the dollar, supported by the good figures published on Friday which suggest that the Fed could maintain its high rates longer than the rest of the developed central banks.
The dollar gained 0.11% against a basket of reference currencies, the euro eroded by 0.28% to 1.0538 dollars, and the pound sterling lost 0.15% to 1.2723 dollars.
In Asia, the yen advanced 0.03% to 149.99 yen per dollar, the Australian dollar lost 0.03% to 0.6387 dollars.
OIL
The barrel is rising, with the fall of Syria’s President Bashar al Assad adding to geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
Brent rose by 0.59% to $71.54 per barrel, American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose by 0.63% to $67.62.
(Written by Corentin Chappron, edited by Augustin Turpin)
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