KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
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The European currency remains under downward pressure and is expected to continue its consolidation towards parity over the coming days and weeks. Since last Thursday and the speech of the American central banker, the downward pressure has returned. The Fed presents itself at the end of the year with a more hawkish tone than expected by operators. This hawkish tone fuels the dollar which is strengthening against the European currency. The American Central Bank now anticipates only two rate cuts next year while the market saw twice as many on its side. However, we can note that American consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in December for the first time in three months. This information published yesterday reinforces the speech of Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve of Chicago. The latter reassured the market last Friday on the 2025 projections. If the stock market welcomed these announcements, the European currency remains on a downward trend in the medium term while growth projections in the euro zone are becoming less optimistic according to a survey of Bloomberg with economists. In this context, currency traders should further favor the dollar in the coming weeks to the detriment of the euro. Technically, as long as the candle of Thursday, December 19 is not taken over by buyers, sellers will keep control. Seasonality does not invite spikes in volatility. Furthermore, no notable statistics should animate the session today.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the EE (E) parity.
Our entry point is at E. The price target for our bearish scenario is at 1.0238 E. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0453 E.
The expected profitability of this Forex strategy is 10238 pips and the risk of loss is 10453 pips.
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