CAC 40: Low volumes and absence of volatility

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The Paris Stock Exchange reopens its doors today peacefully. Several pieces of information could liven up the markets today. First, investors were able to see the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile fresh food costs. This increased by 2.4% in December compared to the previous year. This information maintains market expectations for an increase in short-term interest rates from the Bank of Japan. Investors expect the BOJ to raise interest rates to 0.5% by March next year. Investors are closely monitoring developments in Japanese monetary policy which could affect carry trade operations which, as a reminder, gave rise to a peak in volatility last August. Also in Asia, Toyota Moto rose 8.8% after Nikkei reported that the Japanese automaker was eyeing a 20% return on equity target for fiscal 2025, doubling market forecasts of 11%. %. This information could animate the European automobile sector in search of good news. Moreover, Renault should also benefit from Honda’s announcement of a massive buyback of its shares. At this stage, investors have for the moment digested the comments of the American central bank last week. Indeed, the session of sharp decline caused by Jerome Powell’s comments has almost been erased since, thanks to a rebound in large American stock market capitalizations. Apple is also on the verge of crossing 4,000 billion dollars in market capitalization. On the macroeconomic level, investors will monitor crude oil stocks published today in the United States. On the microeconomic level, we will monitor Voltalia which has started the construction of three photovoltaic power plants in the south of France. Sanofi and Veolia should react to positive analyst comments.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Technically the Parisian index is neutral in the short term. It remains stuck below its bearish gap and below its 20 daily period moving average. These two technical levels must be repeated at the close to see a graphical improvement. As long as the index remains below these two technical elements the index could come back to test the polarity of 7200 points again in the short term.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7465.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7200.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart