CAC 40: The 8,000 points, a first tangible technical obstacle

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After flirting with the symbolic threshold of 8,000 points on Friday, the CAC legitimately initiated a breathing phase during the session, while reaching – and it is symptomatic of the strength of the rally started on January 16 – to keep 0, 44% gain at 7,927 points. The latest sessions will have been marked mainly by the excellent luxury resistance after the copy of the British Burberry, and a relative relief on the customs front, D. Trump not yet announced the measure of customs duties which will be imposed on products European imports.

China, too, blows a little. The American president said he preferred “not to have” to establish customs from Chinese imports. The republican president had previously indicated considering establishing customs surcharge of 10% after mentioning a rate of 60% during his presidential campaign.

“Trump’s recent reluctance to impose severe customs tariffs on China has softened the geopolitical climate. His approach, which echoes the ethics of Theodore Roosevelt,” speak slowly and wear a big stick “, was well greeted by The markets “, notes Stephen Innes, of Spi am. “By refraining from implementing the aggressive customs tariffs he had announced during his campaign, Donald Trump appeared fears of a 60% disaster scenario on trade relations between the United States and China, What is crucial for China and the Asian economy focused on exports, “he adds.

In the statistical chapter, operators learned about the first estimates of activity barometers, for industry and services, the famous PMI. For the whole of the European monetary union, the PMI Services stands at 51.4, perfectly in the target, and the industrial component at 46.1, above the target, thanks to a less catastrophic than expected score German weighting of the index. Note the good performance, although slightly below the first estimates, of the confidence index of American consumers (U-Mich), at 71.1.

In terms of values, automotive equipment, and spirits were, sectorly speaking the great winners of the session, due to the effects of relaxation of the Sino-American trade war. OPPOBILITY won 4.22%, PERNOD RICARD 4.49%, Remy Cointreau 6.07%and Forvia (ex-Faurecia) 7.52%.

Donald Trump’s statements somewhat appeased the fears of a tariff war between China and the United States, a scenario that would weaken the economic situation and thus weigh on automotive demand. In addition, increases in customs duties are likely to increase the costs of manufacturers and have an impact on their production calendars and therefore on the volumes offered to equipment manufacturers. Regarding spirits, “Donald Trump’s more flexible statements on China are rather a good scenario for the market. This dismisses the risk of retaliatory measures from Beijing, which would weigh on macroeconomics and on the demand of spirits. With Europe which would be found in the midst of these two countries and would thus be likely to suffer in the exporting sectors, as therefore the spirits, “explains an analyst.

The week will be marked, in addition to the quarterly publication of many stars of American tech, by the monetary policy meetings of the ECB and the Fed.

The Fed will be the first to complete, on 01/29, its monetary policy committee. “The Fed will remain pending during the FOMC meeting in January, although recent data could suggest a slightly less restrictive posture than in December. The last statistics on inflation maintain the possibility of new rate drops, even If they would be limited, and the job market – despite a strong hiring dynamic – is not currently a source of inflationary pressure. chief for the United States of DWS.

The ECB will follow suit the next day with the end of its council of governors, the European equivalent of the FOMC. The “context [économique] Allows the ECB to further reduce the deposit rate by 25 base points, to 2.75 %”, for Ulrike Kastens, European economist of the same management house, which is based on dichotomy with the health of the economy of the economy American. “Since the last BCE meeting in December, the data situation in the euro zone has not changed much. Economic indicators continue to report rather low growth in the coming months. As expected, the inflation rate continued to increase at the end of 2024. However, inflation projections also show increased confidence in the fact that the increase in the cost of living will be close to the objective of the objective of ‘inflation.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Friday session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.32%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.50%) . Close to its zeniths, the S & P500, a reference barometer for the risk for the risk of fund managers, contracted from 0.29% to 6,101 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,450. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 74.00.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow the IFO of the business climate in Germany at 10:00 am as well as sales of new housing across the Atlantic at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics