by Diana Mandia
Paris (Reuters) – The main European scholarships are expected on a prudent note Thursday at the opening, before the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) later in the day and while the American Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the Monitor its unchanged rates.
According to the first indications available, the Parisian CAC 40 could gain 0.33% at the opening.
The term contracts report an increase of 0.08% for the Dax in Frankfurt, a drop of 0.11% for the FTSE in London and a gain of 0.32% for the Eurostoxx 50 at the opening.
The monetary policy will once again dominate the session: the ECB should announce a new drop in rate of 25 basic points in the face of the low activity on the continent and the slowdown in inflation. It will be the fifth drop in rate in the euro zone since the ECB started its softening cycle last June.
This movement should further accentuate divergences with the United States where the Fed maintained its unchanged rates on Wednesday and warned that the rate of inflation was high.
If it is unlikely that the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, explicitly undertakes to make new reductions, analysts will be particularly vigilant about any comments on the risks of a trade war with the United States, which could further weaken economic activity.
“Inflation is getting closer to the objective more sustainable, the economic prospects remain difficult, while the rates remain clearly in tightening territory,” said Jan von Gerich, analyst at Nordaa. “The process of progressive standardization therefore remains incomplete,” he said.
In addition to monetary policy, technology remains at the center of attention Thursday after recent tremors in AI. The results of the main American groups such as Microsoft, Meta and Tesla were mixed the day before, while in Europe the sector reached a record on Wednesday thanks to the good results of the Dutch equipment manufacturer for ASML fleas.
On the program of the day there are also many results of companies such as Sanofi, Deutsche Bank, Hennes & Mauritz, Shell and Stmicroelectronics, without forgetting a good number of indicators on economic activity on both sides of the Atlantic.
A Wall Street
The New York Stock Exchange ended on Thursday, investors digesting the Fed announcements which maintained its unchanged rates in the face of persistent inflation.
The Dow Jones index sold 0.31%, Standard & Poor’s 500, wider, lost 0.47%and the Nasdaq Composite fell on its side of 0.51%.
The session was also marked by a significant volatility of technological values, Nvidia finishing with 4%withdrawal.
In Asia
The Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended up 0.25%, helped by the optimistic prospects of Advantest, the supplier of the Nvidia flea manufacturer having noted his annual prospects.
In mainland China, the markets are still closed for the Lunar New Year’s holidays and the quotes will not resume until February 5.
RATE
The yields of American treasury bills recede after having increased the day before in response to the prudent tone of the Fed on price dynamics.
The yield of Treasuries at ten years loses 3.3 base points at 4.5224%. The two -year rate drops from a basic point, to 4,2155%.
Changes
The divergence between monetary policies notably promotes the Japanese Yen while the Bank of Japan recently noted its rates, against the current of other major central banks.
The Japanese currency earns 0.5% against the dollar and 0.6% against the euro.
This is the only notable movement on the exchange market, where the dollar fell slightly (-0.06%) against a basket of reference currencies.
The greenback has briefly strengthened during the night when the Fed dropped a reference to inflation progress, which was interpreted as “Hawkish”. But thereafter, the president of the American central bank Jerome Powell said at a press conference that he expected to see new progress on inflation.
OIL
Oil prices are evolving on a prudent note, investors remaining in the expectation of possible American customs duties on exports from Canada and Mexico, the two main crude oil suppliers in the United States.
Brent grabbed 0.01% to 76.59 dollars per barrel and light American crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.12% to $ 72.71.
(Written by Diana Mandia, edited by Blandine Hénault)
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