EUR/USD: Bais unchanged after monetary meetings

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The day after a council of governors of the ECB acting a decoupling of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic, the pair of Euro / dollar currencies continued the layout of its lower lower bias, to the Dam of D Trump, who will increase his pressure, no doubt, on J. Powell for a monetary relaxation.

Yesterday the powerful monetary institution based in Frankfurt has softened, 25 base points, its main key rate.

“A new drop in the BCE rates a few hours after maintaining the Fed rates is above all a history of global divergence in monetary policy”, analyzes Matthew Morgan, head of the Fixed Income management. “This divergence is clearly justified by different growth prospects, but the growing disparity in interest rates, combined with the appetite of investors for American companies, underlines the excessive dependence of the global economy with regard to states -Unis.

The Fed opted the day before for a monetary status quo, before the strength of employment, the resilience of the economy, in the context of a potentially inflationary program of the White House.

“The potential risks, mentioned by Christine Lagarde, during the press conference, second round inflation and possible aggravation of geopolitical tensions do not seem to us to question monetary loosening in the coming months. Despite the maintenance of inflation on services at high levels, we thus confirm our scenario of five additional drops of coming rates until the start of the September school year “, figure Maxime Mura, managing IG rate and credit of SWISS LIFE ASSET France managers.

“Synchronization between large central banks is no longer in order and the paths are now diverging.”

Statistically, “PCE” prices at 2:30 p.m. This is the favorite measure of the Fed in its appreciation of inflation. To follow also carefully, household income and expenditure at 2:30 p.m. and the PMI index of Chicago at 3:45 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against tale $ 1,0380 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,0375 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0531 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 374 pips and the risk of loss is 156 pips.

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