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The euro remained under pressure against the background of the rise in trade tensions between the United States and its main “partners”.
After having confirmed first measures against its immediate neighbors (Canada and Mexico up to 25%), as well as China (10% additional), the American president takes out the claws by being increasingly threatening against the European Union. The index managed to limit his withdrawal after Donald Trump’s decision to suspend for one month a surcharge on imports from Mexico.
With an always “rich” vocabulary, the tenant of the White House declared in front of an audience of journalists, based on the deficit of the trade balance with the European Union: “They do not take our cars or our agricultural products, Almost nothing and we all take millions of cars, a lot of agricultural products “.
“I don’t have a calendar but it is very soon!”, He said.
By magnifying the line, the tenant of the White House strikes hard, and then discusses …
“If the impact of such customs tariffs on growth and inflation is difficult to measure (many compensation effects), how far is D. Trump ready to” suffer “the Americans? The next few days will help determine How much D. Trump wishes to go to the end of his trade war or if this is only a vast game of negotiations “, analyzes Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion.
In the statistical chapter yesterday, the trades learned of the final data of the PMI manufacturing barometers in the euro zone. “Relative” good surprise with the only German component, very supervised, which appears at 45.0 against 44.1 in the first estimate. The score remains at 5 points below the threshold of 50 points, which separates by building a contraction of an expansion of the sector considered. Inflation for the month of January, in the euro zone, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, comes out at +2.7% in annualized pace, slightly above consensus. As for the American Manufacturer PMI, it was symbolically ironed above the 50 point mark, 50.9, against 40.3 last month.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority the new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States at 4:00 p.m.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0330 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0332 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0449 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 331 pips and the risk of loss is 117 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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