CAC 40: Trump the customs officer breaks the bullish impetus of the index

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While with refinement, Donald Trump brandished the customs threat again against his business partners, the Paris market is expected in very sharp drop this morning. First large financial center to close on Monday, Tokyo lost 2.45%.

After having confirmed first measures against its immediate neighbors (Canada and Mexico up to 25%), as well as China (10% additional), the American president takes out the claws by being increasingly threatening against the European Union.

With an always rich vocabulary, the tenant of the White House declared in front of an audience of journalists, based on the deficit of the trade balance with the European Union: “They do not take our cars or our agricultural products, almost nothing And we all take millions of cars, a lot of agricultural products.

“I don’t have a calendar but it’s very soon!”, He said.

Trump has also frozen for 90 days almost all of the support programs for foreign countries.

Friday, the CAC managed to symbolically end in green (+0.11%) while wedging under the 8,000 symbolic points, for the last session of the month marked by the publication in the United States, of the PCE index, the FAD favorite thermometer to measure inflation. The index increased by 2.6% over an year in December, compared to 2.4% in November still at an annual rate. Its underlying component, the “Core PCE” which excludes volatile elements such as energy and food remained stable at 2.8% over a year, in accordance with the expectations of economists interviewed by the Wall Street Journal (2 , 8% over a year).

“The report on PCE inflation comes out overall online with expectations, whether it is total inflation or underlying inflation, and monthly variations or annual variations”, advance Bastien Drut, responsible of strategy and economic studies at CPRAM.

On the values ​​side, Wavestone (+5.3%) published. The consulting firm specializing in the transformation of companies reassured the orientation of its order taking in the third quarter of its offbeat exercise ended at the end A repurchase of the manufacturer of bottles and glass packaging by the rich Brazilian family Moreira Salles. Valneva climbed 10.9% after signing a new contract with the American Department of Defense for the supply of its Ixiaro vaccine, preventing Japanese encephalitis.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the symbolically red session in the red like Dow Jones (-0.75%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.28%) . The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted from 0.50% to 6,040 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0230. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 74.10.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow the final data of PMIs in the euro zone at 10:00 am, the first estimates of consumer prices in the euro zone at 11:00 am, as well as the American manufacturing ISM at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday and reflected on Monday. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance will be broken from the start of February, by a likely, scale gap.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics