CAC 40: Complex market equation under 8,000 points

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French budget, German industry, Deepseek, trade war, geopolitics at the Trump, fears of a return from inflation to the United States, levels of valorization of Batmaan, the reasons for fear of reflux in stock markets are not lacking, and However, it still holds relatively well. Yesterday the CAC managed to limit its withdrawal (-0.19%) very significantly for a fence under the 7,900 points, thanks to the good results of Totalenergies (+1.74%) and Crédit Agricole (+0.82%).

Major Oil overall accused a drop in its results last year, due to market price less favorable to oil and gas. However, the company has recorded accounts higher than expectations in the fourth quarter alone, thanks to LNG activities. As for the listed structure of the mutual bank, it has published results above expectations, including a good performance of its savings and insurance management center. LCL’s revenues have however disappointed. SAS Rue La Boétie, its reference shareholder, will buy for 500 million euros in titles.

The market continues to assess the consequences of exchanges to say the least, between China and the United States on customs surcharge. President Donald Trump signed a decree establishing customs from 10% on Chinese imports on Saturday. This without too much surprise provoked the ire of Beijing which replied by establishing customs surcharges on imports of liquefied natural gas and American coal.

New twist Wednesday: US postal services announced on Tuesday that they would no longer accept “until further notice” packages from China and Hong Kong. The American post then returned to its decision, in the early afternoon.

In the statistical chapter, the private adp human resources firm will quantify the number of positions in the private sector at 183,000, well beyond expectations, confirming tensions on the job market across the Atlantic. The NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) on Friday will be all the more scrutinized … RAS on the PMI services in final data in the euro zone, in accordance with the first estimates for the month of January.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session of Wednesday in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.71%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.19%) , in relatively narrow margins. The S & P500 ironed the 6,000 points, snacking 0.39%.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0380. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 71.30.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m. The Bank of England will also render its verdict on its midday guiding rates.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday and reflected on Monday. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics