EUR/USD: Effect of attraction of parity 1 € for $

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The euro remained under pressure against the dollar, in the context of a rekindled trade war, and in the wake of the publication of a particularly firm American employment report, which will force the Fed to harden the tone.

The markets are starting the week on a new salvo by Donald Trump in the field of customs duties. The American president said on Sunday, February 9, that he planned to set up additional customs duties of 25% on all imports of steel and aluminum in the United States.

“I will announce customs duties on steel on Monday. […] The whole steel arriving in the United States will have 25% customs duties, “said Donald Trump on the presidential plane transporting him to New Orleans where the Super Bowl, the final of the Professional Football League, was played. The American president also announced that he would apply these same customs from aluminum imports.

As for the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report on American employment health in the private sector, it structured the second part of the session on its own. This health is good, no one doubted. The stake was elsewhere, it was a question of gauging the worsening, or not, of the state of tension on the job market, tensions generating inflation.

This report is rather solid, because if the creations of posts (excluding agriculture) stand out at 143,000, a little below expectations, the increase in average hourly wages (+0.5%) challenges, especially since the target defined by consensus was +0.3%. Finally, the unemployment rate, expected stable to 4.1% of the active population, drops to 4.0%.

“Overall, the underlying figures are more solid than suggests disappointment on hiring, and the labor market seems to have gained dynamism towards the end of 2024 and at the beginning of 2025. Strong revisions up Population estimates are probably due to immigration in 2024, which, combined with increased wage pressures, could constitute a restrictive signal for the Fed. New wage increases, “lights up Christian Scherrmann, chief economist of the United States for DWS.

In the immediate future, the burners have just taken note of the index of investors’ confidence in the euro zone. If the latter progresses beyond expectations, at -12.7 points, it is still significantly anchored in negative territory. It is the “expectations for the next 6 months” component, which allows the index to make this progression.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0330 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,0331 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0421 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 330 pips and the risk of loss is 90,0000,000,0001 pips.

Daily data graphics